Humans Too Nuanced to Predict?

3 points | by Sol_Trevino an hour ago

3 comments

  • FrankWilhoit an hour ago

    Let randomness not be confused with nuance.

  • verdverm an hour ago

    > something im building is the worlds largest human behavioral dataset

    > Being able to predict human behavior is the next gold rush

    We're trying to legislate against the abusive behavior. Something like an the American Data & AI Act (ADA Act, hat tip to the first ever programmer)

  • krapp an hour ago

    >But if you cant predict what your next 3 thoughts will be, how can you predict how an entire region of people's reaction to a policy change or an ad?

    It isn't a matter of predicting a specific person's behavior, but influencing human behavior in aggregate. It doesn't matter if you can predict what one person will do when you can increase the likelihood that a thousand, ten thousand or a million people within that person's sphere of influence will likely do something - even by just a little - and the self-reinforcing social and cognitive pressures will take care of the rest. And that's been a science that goes all the way back to the Nazis and Leni Riefenstahl, and continues with government intelligence services, advertising, mass media and social media.