55 comments

  • simonw 10 minutes ago

    I'm confused.

    The numbers that Reuters describe in this article were entirely for 2025.

    It's been well documented that Anthropic's revenue growth in 2026 has been enormous. This was the year of coding agents, and tokenmaxxing, and companies blowing enormous amounts of money on AI thanks to coding agent users spending hundreds (or thousands) of dollars a day.

    Given that, I don't understand why the article and the headline are based exclusively on those 2025 numbers, with not so much as a hint to the reader that there are figures from the past 9 months that aren't covered by the documents Reuters saw.

    Losing $8bn in 2025 isn't particularly notable if you've made ~10x that amount of revenue in 2026.

    (How much did they lose in 2026? Wouldn't we love to know that!)

    Is this just a thing with leaked IPO prospectuses and coverage of them?

      camdenreslink 5 minutes ago

      Presumably the expenses would also be higher in 2026 as well, because inference costs scale with usage and I think training Astra would be in there as well.

  • 2ss an hour ago

    2 things can be true:

    -LLMs profoundly change society -The LLM business is mangled in terms of ROIC vs CoC

    Such a business already exists - airlines.

    This nuance is what many here refuse/find difficult to understand.

      CoolestBeans 37 minutes ago

      Well said, the technology can be transformative while being structurally challenging to build a viable business around.

        runarberg 21 minutes ago

        But the technology also doesn’t have to be transformative either. I for one am not convinced.

        The two things being true may as well be: LLM will not be transformative and the LLM business is mangled in terms of ROIC vs CoC.

        In fact given the behavior of AI companies, I actually consider it more likely then not that the effects of the technology is severely over-hyped. I for one do not trust the words of the people who mangle their business in terms of ROIC and CoC. Why should I?

          vineyardmike 8 minutes ago

          Do you not feel we’re already transformed?

          The world looks pretty different today. Even if the model maker companies go out of business (I’m skeptical), the model weights would stick around (many are open freeware already).

          I know many software engineers who haven’t written code this year. AI chatbots are regularly used as alternatives to searching manually by many people. Agents are becoming a valuable new enterprise tool, and now consumers tech consumers are hopping on board.

          CookieCrisp 15 minutes ago

          LLM's are already transformative. I get thinking it isn't going to solve all the world problems, but, companies throughout the entire world are already using it at enormous numbers. Transformative means it changes the world, it already has. It does not mean it changes your life.

          goolz 11 minutes ago

          It is becoming increasingly hard not to see it as transformative. The man hours needed to do my work has been cut down by orders of magnitude. Wether this transformation is wholly a good thing is to be seen.

          ambrozk 13 minutes ago

          Don’t. It doesn’t matter. Join Ed Zitron and shout at clouds while the world passes you by.

      pid-1 22 minutes ago

      Isn't telecom kinda the same? Lots and lots of capex, turned into dumb pipes that can't extract value from their customers.

        mattm 16 minutes ago

        I don't think telecom is the same. 2025 net income for the big 3 US telecoms: AT&T: $22B Verizon: $17B T-Mobile: $11B

          bad_haircut72 14 minutes ago

          Compared to the Google/Facebook and other websites who run over these networks the Telcos barely capture any of the value in that exchange for themselves, whilst stumping for huge amounts of the capex

            repeekad 9 minutes ago

            Meta alone made more than those three combined at $60B, Google made $132B

      elzbardico 24 minutes ago

      Frankly, outside of coding there's no much real use for AI, which is basically NLP.

        aeon_ai 20 minutes ago

        "Generate me an explainer video of someone holding a sign stating "I have no idea what I'm talking about" being educated about the realities of time, labor, and 'good enough'"

        You're right. I didn't even need AI to get my point across.

          applfanboysbgon 17 minutes ago

          If that's your idea of "real use", you're really reinforcing their point.

        minimaxir 23 minutes ago

        There's, uh, a reason ChatGPT is one of the biggest consumer apps of all time.

          dubbie99 20 minutes ago

          That nobody uses on their phones. It’s like that install of angrybirds everyone has that they haven’t touched in a decade

            minimaxir 8 minutes ago

            As of today, ChatGPT is the #4 most downloaded free app on the US iOS App Store: this chart only measures new/recent downloads.

            The #1 and #2 apps are non-coding, pure consumer AI applications (Meta Muse and Momo).

            pjerem 12 minutes ago

            You are living in another world. I don’t know a single people who is not using ChatGPT, Gemini or Claude. Even my non tech parents are using it everyday.

          elzbardico 18 minutes ago

          How many people are going to pay a 20 dollars subscription for it?

            minimaxir 16 minutes ago

            That is not relevant to your assertion of "AI has no real use besides NLP."

            trollbridge 14 minutes ago

            apparently very few people - I know tons of people who use it and almost nobody who pays for it, particularly outside of tech

  • jameskilton an hour ago

    > Anthropic said nearly a quarter of its revenue came from two customers last year, and as part of its risk factors, warned that many of its largest clients were not locked into long-term contracts and could cut or stop spending.

      Aboutplants 30 minutes ago

      One of those customers is the US government, I wonder who the other one is

      sarjann 31 minutes ago

      Is it possible those are cloud providers? Someone using Claude on google vertex might just switch to Claude on AWS or Anthropic. Also I don’t imagine cloud providers suddenly cutting the cord.

  • camdenreslink 41 minutes ago

    Some of these numbers are crazy. The scale of them is hard to comprehend.

    - $42 billion net loss in 2025

    - $518 billion in infrastructure obligations in the next year

    - 1/4 of revenue coming from 2 customers

      ac29 32 minutes ago

      Not $518B in the next year, they plan "to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming years" (number of years unspecified)

      lokar 30 minutes ago

      I feel like we can't really evaluate them until we see a fairly detailed breakdown that shows inference margin, training costs and non-compute R&D

        fwip 16 minutes ago

        This is true. If they aren't showing the details, it's because the details make them look worse.

      knuppar 10 minutes ago

      Factor in their margin being chewed through with every open model release.

      That spending obligation sounds extremely unlikely to be fulfilled without a bailout. Anthropic's IPO is them passing the hot potato forward.

      siva7 32 minutes ago

      I guess those 2 customers must be state actors as one of them must be spending at least 12B$ ?

      kamranjon 34 minutes ago

      does anyone understand what this part actually means?

      "The near-$42 billion net loss included a roughly $34 billion accounting charge that reflected an increase in the estimated value of financing that could eventually turn into Anthropic shares, rather than money the company spent running its business."

        AntiRush 23 minutes ago

        This is likely a convertible debt investment from Amazon being revalued. The numbers are pretty close, there might be some smaller notes in there too.

        https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426...

        gonzalohm 20 minutes ago

        If I understand correctly it means that they have a lot of debt and with increasing interest rates, they have to spend a significant chunk in just paying interest

        FuckButtons 27 minutes ago

        They increased the projected liability of pre-existing financial deals that include share options.

        jonas21 22 minutes ago

        Convertible notes are worth more as the value of the company rises and under accounting rules that’s considered an expense for the company?

          trollbridge 13 minutes ago

          Because it is, because every other shareholder gets diluted.

        runarberg 27 minutes ago

        If you truly believe that the cost of financing should not be included in your net loss (I don‘t know anything about money, so I don‘t know whether you should or not) $8 billion in net loss is also mindboggingly large number.

        As a member of the working class who believes this money is coming from systemic exploitation of the working classes, I hate it that Anthrhopic can just loose $8 billion like that. Those $8 billion could have been used elsewhere, including to mitigate the effects of the climate disaster, to educate the youth, towards social security, or to increase the wages of the working people who could have used it to pay rent, or go to the cinema, or a family trip to visit their grandma who lives in Wyoming.

          trollbridge 11 minutes ago

          Okay. About 50 million households in America earning under $50k.

          8 billion is enough to give each of them $160. Great, all of Anthropic’s spending is enough to give each family a trip to Texas Roadhouse including dessert.

      meowface 41 minutes ago

      Sure, but their revenue growth numbers are also crazy.

        socializer 30 minutes ago

        Here's another amazing trick for revenue growth: buy items on Amazon and then sell them on your website for half the price.

        Revenue growth means nothing if you don't have a viable business plan. Anthropic doesn't have one, except "this thing is more important than Big Bang". I don't discount the possibility that they stay afloat on borrowed money long enough to actually find a way to be profitable / rule the world. But it's nothing other than appeal to consequence right now.

          bbor 22 minutes ago

          So either your analysis is correct or the scientists begging and pleading with people to finally acknowledge what they've been saying since 2023 are correct. I know where I'll be putting my money!

      EA-3167 28 minutes ago

      And just think, some people seriously still believe the IPO isn’t finding bag-holders. On the other hand at least when the music stops a lot of the money people have been panicking about wasting will turn out to have been pledges that never came to fruition.

  • vmg12 24 minutes ago

    Why are they only revealing 2025 numbers 3 quarters into 2026?

      datadrivenangel 19 minutes ago

      I assume routers is going to drop the H1 2026 numbers later to keep the hype going

  • xdavidliu 33 minutes ago

    i'm curious what the two customers were

      gonzalohm 23 minutes ago

      Seeing all the financial juggling AI companies do, it wouldn't surprise me if one of the customers is themselves lol

      cheonic4040 29 minutes ago

      Meta is one

  • carterschonwald an hour ago

    is the prospectus public yet? its not linked in the article afaict.

      tedd4u 31 minutes ago

      “ … according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters.”