Success = (number of attempts) × (probability of success each time)

3 comments

• azatom an hour ago

  I didn't read the article, I don't think these kind has any value, but if you are here.. :)

  i think it is rather binary, so

  P_overall_success = 1 - (1 - P_success) ^ #attempts

  and expected number of first success:

  n = 1 / P_success

• Arodex an hour ago

  I don't see "cost" mentioned anywhere there.

  [-]
  AnimalMuppet an hour ago

  That determines how many attempts you can buy.