This is a refining capacity problem, not an crude oil supply problem. The various wars have taken out refining capacity and transport capacity.
On the crude oil side, the US strategic petroleum reserve is declining rapidly.[1]
That took a hit during COVID and the early Ukraine war because production was down. Refilling started afterward, but didn't take it up to normal levels. There's still maybe a year of oil left.
This is a refining capacity problem, not an crude oil supply problem. The various wars have taken out refining capacity and transport capacity.
On the crude oil side, the US strategic petroleum reserve is declining rapidly.[1] That took a hit during COVID and the early Ukraine war because production was down. Refilling started afterward, but didn't take it up to normal levels. There's still maybe a year of oil left.
[1] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W...
https://archive.today/FXENu
Related:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crack_spread
https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=1630
https://financialpost.com/news/posthaste-an-energy-shock-muc...