When the West was settled it was widely believed that the act of building a town attracted rain. The 'atmosphere' of human buildings in an area would naturally attract and collect rain from the heavens. Many of the original methods used to estimate water, rainfall, and other essentials for human survival were wrong.
Most of them are catalogued in the outstanding Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner - an excellent book with an outstanding audiobook too.
Who would’ve thought that growing water intensive crops in the middle of the desert and growing cities like Phoenix with suburbs with lush green lawns at a much higher rate than rest of the country was going to be without consequences.
Using an unsustainable amount of water to grow cattle feed and romaine lettuce in one of the most arid places on Earth is a questionable choice. It seems like the choice will be made for us, soon.
The shrinking reservoirs are the immediate result of record-low snowpack this winter, which was erased by record heat in the spring. Melted snowpack creates most of the Colorado’s flow during the dry summer months. But as the Southwestern climate has grown hotter and drier, the river’s flow has become smaller and less reliable.
Legitimate question: I can understand that record-low snowpack would cause less water to flow into the lake, but the "erasure" of the snow pack by heat is just melting that would be captured in the lake, right? So if the record-low snowpack had been followed by record cold, would we have even less water in the lake?
In the mountain west warm dry springs coincide with higher winds. The blowing warm dry air leads to dramatically increased evaporation of snow melt, drying of soil, as well as increased transpiration in plants, so the total moisture loss is much higher than what you might expect simply from modeling simple heat evaporation of open water bodies.
university of utah has several studies on the matter. a substantial percentage of the snowpack sublimates during a heatwave, never has a chance to melt. Of the remaining snowmelt, it has to saturate the ground before any can flow to an adjacent stream to feed the water table, and the bone dry soil around here can absorb a significant amount of water.
Not all of the erasure is captured. For example, if the ground is dry, than most gets absorbed into soil and won’t make it to the river. Or the snow may sublimate and go straight to vapor at heat.
Record cold would lead to more water. It would melt out fast later and since the soil was already recharged it would flow to rivers.
Worth noting this is generally glacier free landscape so the snow melts fully each year.
I do believe people in general will be fine in the soutwest for years to come. Agriculture will be cut back, natural landscapes will take over, de-sal in socal and better water treatment plants will come online.
The ecological effects of this, though, seem so disastrous. If the Colorado river dries up, what then? The whole of the Southwest just like, dies?
I recommend folks here read "The Dreamt Land" by Mark Arax. I just started it so it might be a premature recommendation, but it has been doing a great job for me as a new California resident of explaining the interaction between business/agriculture and the desert landscape.
This year was the first year I finally realized how things are going to be from now on and only getting worse. I’m a gardener and the plants are having such a tough time, many trees in my neighborhood are already bare from dropping their leaves from the heat. I’ve been looking into just landscaping with native plants moving forward that can handle the heat. I have drip irrigation, but that does nothing when air temps stay above 100 for days on end. The world isn’t prepared for this in any way. What happens when the breadbasket of your country gets like this?
There is enough water for human consumption, but agriculture is over in the basin. There simply isn’t enough water forward looking for the water intensive crops in question.
uh oh this doesn't seem good. but I feel like we've been inundated with articles like this for years so it's hard to tell when it's actually an emergency
Wars will be fought over water, but of all the foolish reasons the US could invade Canada over, water isn't one of them. The US has ample shoreline on every Great Lake, and essentially none of the Mississippi watershed lies north of the border.
You have nearly 10 times the freshwater per capita compared to the US. How selfish /s.
Let's thinks of a casus belli. How about something like: "Trillions of gallons of fresh water flow uselessly into the frozen northern seas every year due to Canadian inaction. We are stepping in to build the infrastructure needed to save that water and feed the continent. "
When the West was settled it was widely believed that the act of building a town attracted rain. The 'atmosphere' of human buildings in an area would naturally attract and collect rain from the heavens. Many of the original methods used to estimate water, rainfall, and other essentials for human survival were wrong.
Most of them are catalogued in the outstanding Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner - an excellent book with an outstanding audiobook too.
https://www.amazon.com/Cadillac-Desert-American-Disappearing...
I’ve heard this idea referred to as “rain follows the plow”, which as they found out in the 19th century, does not hold true.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rain_follows_the_plow
19th century Law of Attraction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Thought
Who would’ve thought that growing water intensive crops in the middle of the desert and growing cities like Phoenix with suburbs with lush green lawns at a much higher rate than rest of the country was going to be without consequences.
How much do the lawns in Phoenix actually contribute to this problem?
Comparatively very little, when stacked against the massive usage of water by agricultural irrigation. Source: https://conormclaughlin.net/2023/03/visualizing-water-consum...
Using an unsustainable amount of water to grow cattle feed and romaine lettuce in one of the most arid places on Earth is a questionable choice. It seems like the choice will be made for us, soon.
Everything contributes but residential use is a much smaller share in total. Arizona water utilization by class [0]:
0. https://mapazdashboard.arizona.edu/article/arizonas-water-us...Just another form of debt we’ve been living off of, since the compact was established, knowing it wasn’t sustainable long term.
The shrinking reservoirs are the immediate result of record-low snowpack this winter, which was erased by record heat in the spring. Melted snowpack creates most of the Colorado’s flow during the dry summer months. But as the Southwestern climate has grown hotter and drier, the river’s flow has become smaller and less reliable.
Legitimate question: I can understand that record-low snowpack would cause less water to flow into the lake, but the "erasure" of the snow pack by heat is just melting that would be captured in the lake, right? So if the record-low snowpack had been followed by record cold, would we have even less water in the lake?
In the mountain west warm dry springs coincide with higher winds. The blowing warm dry air leads to dramatically increased evaporation of snow melt, drying of soil, as well as increased transpiration in plants, so the total moisture loss is much higher than what you might expect simply from modeling simple heat evaporation of open water bodies.
university of utah has several studies on the matter. a substantial percentage of the snowpack sublimates during a heatwave, never has a chance to melt. Of the remaining snowmelt, it has to saturate the ground before any can flow to an adjacent stream to feed the water table, and the bone dry soil around here can absorb a significant amount of water.
Not all of the erasure is captured. For example, if the ground is dry, than most gets absorbed into soil and won’t make it to the river. Or the snow may sublimate and go straight to vapor at heat.
Record cold would lead to more water. It would melt out fast later and since the soil was already recharged it would flow to rivers.
Worth noting this is generally glacier free landscape so the snow melts fully each year.
Aside from melting at historically fast levels, the snow itself is at record low levels. Less snow -> less snowpack -> less water.
For data, check out the second visualization here:
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/states/CO/produ...
There's no snowpack left, earlier in the season, because there's way less snow, and it's being consumed faster.
Good news! The El Nino that's forming is predicted to cause record snowpack in the West this winter...
https://nypost.com/2026/08/16/science/super-el-nino-odds-for...
So long as it goes down as snow instead of rain. Given high current temps (NEP25A) I’m not hopeful but we’ll see.
long range forecasts suggest drier conditions for northwest/west this winter https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/atlantic-anomaly-...
I do believe people in general will be fine in the soutwest for years to come. Agriculture will be cut back, natural landscapes will take over, de-sal in socal and better water treatment plants will come online.
The ecological effects of this, though, seem so disastrous. If the Colorado river dries up, what then? The whole of the Southwest just like, dies?
I wonder if I'll live to see the evacuation of Phoenix and Las Vegas. (Or Abu Dhabi, for that matter.)
I recommend folks here read "The Dreamt Land" by Mark Arax. I just started it so it might be a premature recommendation, but it has been doing a great job for me as a new California resident of explaining the interaction between business/agriculture and the desert landscape.
Life will be fine. Exporting alfalfa from the Imperial Valley, however, might be done for.
Water rights unfortunately don't really work like "residents > business."
they'll just start pumping groundwater again which will cause huge earthquakes
This year was the first year I finally realized how things are going to be from now on and only getting worse. I’m a gardener and the plants are having such a tough time, many trees in my neighborhood are already bare from dropping their leaves from the heat. I’ve been looking into just landscaping with native plants moving forward that can handle the heat. I have drip irrigation, but that does nothing when air temps stay above 100 for days on end. The world isn’t prepared for this in any way. What happens when the breadbasket of your country gets like this?
There is enough water for human consumption, but agriculture is over in the basin. There simply isn’t enough water forward looking for the water intensive crops in question.
https://coloradoriverscience.org/Agricultural_water_use
uh oh this doesn't seem good. but I feel like we've been inundated with articles like this for years so it's hard to tell when it's actually an emergency
It's been an emergency for years.
Emergencies are things that must be dealt with immediately or there will be immediate consequences.
So a broken ankle in the wilderness isn't an emergency?
Having only 10 days of food when you expect to be 30 days away from resupply isn't an emergency?
Would hate to be stuck in a tricky situation with you (which... it turns out I am)
Emergencies are problems where the consequences emerge close to or earlier than the time required to mitigate it.
It seems more and more likely the next Great War will be fought over water.
As a Canadian, I get nervous when I see the US running out.
The US is nowhere near running out. Big Ag might have to cut back on growing thirsty crops in the middle of the deserts, though.
One of the great lakes alone (Ontario) contains enough fresh water that it could supply the lifetime water requirements of 28 billion people.
Wars will be fought over water, but of all the foolish reasons the US could invade Canada over, water isn't one of them. The US has ample shoreline on every Great Lake, and essentially none of the Mississippi watershed lies north of the border.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/fresh-wat...
You have nearly 10 times the freshwater per capita compared to the US. How selfish /s.
Let's thinks of a casus belli. How about something like: "Trillions of gallons of fresh water flow uselessly into the frozen northern seas every year due to Canadian inaction. We are stepping in to build the infrastructure needed to save that water and feed the continent. "
It was a proposal:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Water_and_Power...
So what you're saying is, we have a blueprint and it's theoretically possible. That makes it worse.
Co-operation from our northern neighbor would be appreciated. But, perhaps, not required, given a thirst great enough.
So was damming the Strait of Gibraltar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantropa
Both ideas are equally as likely to be implemented.
It was a political stunt, not a serious proposal.
> The Corps of Engineers studied this project in the 1950s and 1960s, but no official proposal was ever developed.