Seems odd that they don't discuss a common reason to short a stock: you expect it to go down, without any real opinion on the business. In this case there is going to be a ton of new float fairly soon. It's a pretty safe bet that this will depress the price. So the natural trade is to sell now (short), and buy later (cover the short). That effectively moves the future price drop to "now", which is likely what we see. This is just one way (of many) in which the market factors future events into today's price, which is sort of the whole point.
That could happen, but should also consider that it's often the case with lockups release that they do not inflict much change on the stock price, but only if there's already enough trading volume on the stock due to other market conditions.
you clearly over-analyze the problems !
The right question should be answered is: after the investor who participated in the spcx pre-sale, receive the lockup shares, what will they do ?
And what makes them do that ?
Under which conditions ?
On one hand, I sense that the same people who were in the shorts crowd of the Tesla 'boom or bust' Model 3 era ($TSLQQ) are now piling up against SPCX (e.g. Ed Zitron). Betting again Elon is very risky. And on the other, boy that huge valuation is scary.
The situation could be that there are two intertwined bubbles: an AI-tech-bubble and AI-financial-bubble, both at the same time and only one of them is going to really burst and affect valuations. If that happens, we can only guess the period of time it takes for the S&P 500 to recover.
Weeks is an enormous amount of time now actually. The majority of plays in what people do with stocks is actually very short term. People aren't the kind of Berkshire buy and hold-ers anymore.
If you look it up 60% of options volumes on the S&P 500 is 0 days to expiry. Literally gambling if it goes up and down this day.
Btw its not just the US that's like this. South Koreas 2x single stock ETF debacle and India's Janestreet options story are somehow even more degenerate.
And on the other hand, there's a whole movement (in niche terms, though) of people going "just add to an S&P 500 ETF for 50 years and forget about everything else".
Seems odd that they don't discuss a common reason to short a stock: you expect it to go down, without any real opinion on the business. In this case there is going to be a ton of new float fairly soon. It's a pretty safe bet that this will depress the price. So the natural trade is to sell now (short), and buy later (cover the short). That effectively moves the future price drop to "now", which is likely what we see. This is just one way (of many) in which the market factors future events into today's price, which is sort of the whole point.
https://archive.is/uVXbr
ggwp
They expect locked up shares to hit the market in August and tank the price
They also see one of the most ridiculously overvalued stocks of all time and want to collect easy money.
That could happen, but should also consider that it's often the case with lockups release that they do not inflict much change on the stock price, but only if there's already enough trading volume on the stock due to other market conditions.
you clearly over-analyze the problems ! The right question should be answered is: after the investor who participated in the spcx pre-sale, receive the lockup shares, what will they do ? And what makes them do that ? Under which conditions ?
On one hand, I sense that the same people who were in the shorts crowd of the Tesla 'boom or bust' Model 3 era ($TSLQQ) are now piling up against SPCX (e.g. Ed Zitron). Betting again Elon is very risky. And on the other, boy that huge valuation is scary.
The situation could be that there are two intertwined bubbles: an AI-tech-bubble and AI-financial-bubble, both at the same time and only one of them is going to really burst and affect valuations. If that happens, we can only guess the period of time it takes for the S&P 500 to recover.
"Just weeks"
Weeks is an enormous amount of time now actually. The majority of plays in what people do with stocks is actually very short term. People aren't the kind of Berkshire buy and hold-ers anymore.
If you look it up 60% of options volumes on the S&P 500 is 0 days to expiry. Literally gambling if it goes up and down this day.
Btw its not just the US that's like this. South Koreas 2x single stock ETF debacle and India's Janestreet options story are somehow even more degenerate.
And on the other hand, there's a whole movement (in niche terms, though) of people going "just add to an S&P 500 ETF for 50 years and forget about everything else".
Would have been an amazing idea 10 years ago. Not sure anymore.