The US grocery slowdown is real

31 points | by toomuchtodo an hour ago

31 comments

  • Avicebron 29 minutes ago

    They should just lead with people don't have any money to buy things because wages aren't increasing to match living expenses.

    It cuts back some of the fig leaves

      quantified 22 minutes ago

      Probably cuts back on some of the epic waste on the consumer side. Hope that ripples to cutting down waste throughout the system. Paying for stuff that isn't consumed is by definition waste.

        nvme0n1p1 14 minutes ago

        Consumers are the last group I would blame.

        https://www.usda.gov/about-food/food-safety/food-loss-and-wa...

        > food waste is estimated at ... 133 billion pounds ... in 2010.

        USA population in 2010 was 311M. 133B / 311M = 427 pounds per person.

        I sincerely doubt the average consumer throws away 427 pounds of fresh food in a year.

          qdotme 6 minutes ago

          1.5lb / day? I'd wager it's quite equally in thirds, would love to see the data.

          I'd believe 0.5lbs/day/person in my household - cook enough for everyone to have seconds, but most of the time it's tossed (sometimes after some time spent in the fridge/freezer hoping for a reheat); stuff bought but inedible (chicken bones, etc)..

          I'd believe similar in the distribution pipeline (just look at how much stuff are in the discounted aisle just about to fall off sell-by date + obviously moldy goods), and I'd believe similar in the production pipeline.

          Fricken 3 minutes ago

          What is the food system for if it isn't for the consumers? There's nothing else, just consumers. They pay for the system producing the waste.

      billfor 11 minutes ago

      They should just lead with saying that obesity rates have tripled since the 1960s and maybe they will start declining a bit now.

        estearum 9 minutes ago

        Very well-supported argument by the fact that obesity tends to accumulate in the well-off who can afford lots of food, while poor folks tend to be slender. So yeah, clearly lower spending on food would reduce obesity.

  • kart23 a few seconds ago

    cooking at home using quality ingredients from stores in SF is literally as pricey as eating out nowadays.

    doesn't surprise me that people are trying to get their dollars to stretch further by buying in bulk, cheaper ingredients, etc.

  • JoeAltmaier 3 minutes ago

    Shelves are fairly spotty in my town. Never saw that before, not in 50 years.

  • the__alchemist 8 minutes ago

    Is delivery services accounted for? I buy 1/3 I did a year ago, as Amazon's services are so convenient, and not much more expensive. (Especially since I throw out less now)

  • mmh0000 22 minutes ago

    Oh Man. The author couldn't even write their own headline. Thanks LLM!

      stavros 19 minutes ago

      Haven't you heard? Everything is real these days. Now I have the full picture, and it's load-bearing. Here's the smoking gun, a belt-and-suspenders approach to article-writing. It's not writing, it's poetry.

  • anukin 16 minutes ago

    People underestimate the impact of glp1 drugs on this. They should also correlate with decline in fast food consumption.

      mhitza a few seconds ago

      I think that is also big factor why many, very many, products contain now protein, and the exessive protein food receipes on social media.

      dqv 8 minutes ago

      I don't know how to estimate the impact tbh. The same article links to https://www.bain.com/insights/weight-loss-drug-users-spend-l...

      How much does 7% of the population spending 4% less on groceries impact the numbers in the original article?

  • tencentshill 11 minutes ago

    Trump put a little orange thumb on the scale by choosing Walmart to be the winner on beef prices. Did they weigh for government interference?

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/grocery/2026/07/08/walmart-ro...

  • gustavus 17 minutes ago

    > Our analysis of NielsenIQ grocery data shows a trend in negative unit growth starting in mid-2025, masked by steady price increases. But since February 2026, units have stepped down sharply enough to pull sales lower across the US. Prices are still climbing 2% to 3% year over year,

    Seems pretty straightforward. They increased their price to try and make up for losses, which in turn mean less people purchasing, which they responded to by increasing prices. A lovely little circle.

    Maybe some economists should investigate how prices effects demand, could be groundbreaking.

  • alephnerd 29 minutes ago

    What is interesting is the subnational breakdown - volumes have been decreasing in the US West for over a year compared to the rest of the US, and overall sales have also decreased as well whereas they are stagnant in the rest of the US.

  • jackyinger 31 minutes ago

    Woah… price elasticity of demand is real… who knew? /s

  • bloaf 17 minutes ago

    Obesity rates have been declining over the same time period.

  • qdotme 22 minutes ago

    Or.. is it a GLP-1 byproduct? These are powerful appetite suppressants.. in fact I'm curious if the mechanism of action of these peptides affects other impulse behavior, including impulse purchasing?

    We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).

      kennethologist 18 minutes ago

      "Early studies suggest that GLP-1s may be effective in treating opioid, alcohol and nicotine addiction. Researchers are examining whether the drugs can also help people who are addicted to gambling, sex and shopping, among other things."

      https://med.stanford.edu/news/insights/2025/04/ozempic-addic...

        qdotme 16 minutes ago

        Yeah - powerful confounder to all the analyses of customer behavior. Even the article itself calls it out - there probably is a good way to segment it, as GLP1 availability is not uniform, some states regulate it more tightly etc.

      fullshark 15 minutes ago

      The analysis mentions this, says it's a factor and links to:

      https://www.bain.com/insights/weight-loss-drug-users-spend-l...

        qdotme 12 minutes ago

        It certainly does, I mentioned it in an comment below, good callout.

        I am however also more interested in how this affects other types of consumer behavior - and whether that is a factor in pullback on the economy (on top of other factors - energy, job market, trade restrictions).

      anukin 15 minutes ago

      I am inclined towards thinking that it is probably this as there is also decline in fast food demand.

      paleotrope 17 minutes ago

      12% of the adult population. I think it's a good theory.