57 comments

  • gnabgib 16 hours ago

    Related: US will overhaul childhood vaccine schedule to recommend fewer shots (33 points, 4 days ago, 11 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46504844

    Unrelated: MHRA approves self replicating mRNA Covid-19 vaccine (10 points, 5 days ago, 6 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46500392

  • joshcsimmons 8 hours ago

    This is directionally correct but methodologically flawed.

    The US requires 5-10 more vaccines for children by 5 years old than Japan does. Japan also has a much more spaced out schedule over those 5 years.

    Given that the American health machine is largely driven by pharmaceutical companies, it seems likely that there is some fat that can be trimmed. Did they trim it here? Who knows.

      hshdhdhj4444 7 hours ago

      Japan has a different medical system, different levels of adherence, different cultural hygiene standards, different exposure risk profiles for different pathogens.

      Comparing the U.S. to Japan, or any other system for that matter, with a simple “well the vaccine schedule is different there” is simplistic and almost certainly not useful.

      What is useful is to compare the U.S. with and without a certain vaccine or when delaying certain vaccines.

      And we know how that plays out because all these vaccines have been added because of specific threats and actual diseases faced by Americans.

        jimmydddd 6 hours ago

        Not sure "comparing A to B is 100% totally useless because A and B have some differences" is a good strategy?

  • aussieguy1234 14 hours ago

    In many developing countries folks don't get vaccinated either and a lot of them die. TB, Typhoid, Hepatitis and others are still major problems.

    So with this approach, the US will be going the way of those developing countries.

    Apart from the deaths, there will almost certainly be economic damage.

      nwienert 14 hours ago

      Like Japan or Denmark, which closely align to the new schedule?

        defrost 13 hours ago

        Without the postpartum and early childcare of those countries.

        Denmark doesn't do mandatory vaccines to the same degree as they catch early development of disease and treat it when it appears, consistently across the whole population.

        The US has a case for mandatory multi childhood vacination as the data shows otherwise preventable childhood diseases will spread untreated and unchecked.

        If you like Japan and Denmark and want the same - get onto improving the US health system for everybody regardless of employment status.

        shakna 13 hours ago

        Really? This seems much stricter than you seem to be suggesting...

        https://www.jpeds.or.jp/uploads/files/20240220_Immunization_...

        UltraSane 13 hours ago

        Japanese tend to be irrationally anti-vaccine

  • Animats 15 hours ago

    More MAGA kids will die off. Probably not the intent.

      Quothling 15 hours ago

      More of everyone will die. It's not just the anti-vax children, infants, eldery, chronic, or, the immunocompromised people who get it worse when herd immunity disappears. Vaccines are risk reducers, but it's not like they are perfect + the increased toll on the hospitals make more outbreaks bad for everyone.

      It's one of the reasons the anti-vax movement never made any sense to me. Flat Earth is silly, but at least it's perfectly harmless, but anti-vax?

        lithos 9 hours ago

        You're applying technical info to a social problem.

        Americans don't trust the medical system, MAGA Americans are likely to trust it less statistically due to who the opioid pandemic/over subscription issue hit (watching a potentially close family member go from productive to an addict that started on legally subscribed drugs is hard).

          mindslight 2 hours ago

          > MAGA Americans are likely to trust it less statistically due to who the opioid pandemic/over subscription issue hit

          Quite on brand to go from "personal responsibility" and "you can always avoid bad businesses" to directly blaming someone else when something actually ends up affecting them personally.

          TitaRusell 8 hours ago

          The medical system that is infected by capitalism?

          Patients must never become consumers.

          anal_reactor 7 hours ago

          Not to mention two giant problems with the entire scientific community:

          1. It just sucks at communication. Many people have been misled because marketeers lied to them "it's scientifically proven!" while scientists did nothing to fix that, because they only cared about preserving communication channels between themselves. The mistrust in science is obvious if you take this into account.

          2. At the end of the day, scientists are people who have their biases and weaknesses. There have been well-documented cases of the entire scientific community doing a massive fuckup. So when now a bunch of scientists come and say "trust us bro, this time it's legit" it's reasonable to be sceptical.

        roenxi 13 hours ago

        It isn't particularly hard to understand - people should be allowed to make their own determination about what is good for their health, what isn't and what risk tolerance they are personally comfortable with. If that principle is embraced a whole heap of good things are fairly obvious - why there shouldn't be state-backed eugenics programs, why exercise is voluntary and it makes health policy a lot less charged. If the principle is thrown out then a lot of problematic policy becomes hard to reject.

        I mean, look at what the vax-mandatory movement got - they enraged a bunch of people, helped secure Trump II, made vaccine scepticism a mainstream and popular position which arguably handed the US health department vaccine policy to anti-vaxers. Maybe avoiding authoritarian tactics and sticking to principle would have gotten them a better outcome? Hard to see how it could be worse, to be honest. They screwed up pretty badly.

          runamok 7 hours ago

          Aren't they optional in most cases? You can opt-out of vaxing your kids today right? They just won't be welcome in public schools. I guess the other common cohort is health care workers (which seems reasonable) per https://leadingage.org/workforce-vaccine-mandates-state-who-... More than 1 million people died in the US from the COVID pandemic so it seemed reasonable to work hard to get herd immunity but the backfire effect made that counter productive. Hindsight is 20/20 though.

          Quothling 10 hours ago

          To me it seems needlessly cruel to relearn the lesson on a mountain of dead children.

          _DeadFred_ 5 hours ago

          Google Joe Rogan Measles. This is the level of information that people are using to make these decisions, being fed to them by the LARGEST mainstream media source (Joe Rogan has the largest mainstream media audience).

          tempodox 12 hours ago

          Yes, the right to spread avoidable infectious diseases obviously has priority. /s

            roenxi 12 hours ago

            Have infectious diseases stopped spreading? And all this is happening in the shadows of COVID where the vaccines famously had no significant impact on the rate of the spread. The people claiming they would turned out to be part of the misinformation crowd.

            We ran a natural experiment in Australia. Everyone got the vaccine, then everyone got COVID over the course of a month or two. The official numbers were high and aren't even accurate because there were too many cases to count, it got everywhere and the measurement kits ran out.

              surgical_fire 11 hours ago

              > Have infectious diseases stopped spreading?

              Thanks to vaccines? Yes. Multiple times in history.

              Smallpox, polio, measles, mumps.

              > vaccines famously had no significant impact on the rate of the spread.

              That's quite a claim. I see you provided no sources.

              As far as I remember, vaccines were the main reason things became safe enough to things to return to a sense of normalcy.

              I mean, I am not from they US, so my actual response to this news is a vague shrug. I just hope the anti-vax bullshit is contained within US borders.

                roenxi 11 hours ago

                > That's quite a claim. I see you provided no sources.

                Why do I need to source anything? Nobody credible ever claimed the vaccines would slow the spread, no evidence was ever provided that vaccines slow the spread and theory suggests they probably won't slow the spread. The people making things up in defiance of the obvious are the ones who need to start providing sources on this one.

                If you want to check the numbers; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia - we've got 22 million vaccinated people on a population of around 25 million in 2021. We see ~12 million confirmed COVID cases and in the immediate post-lockdown period the testing system crumbled under load. Do the math. An exponential process that everyone was exposed to was downgraded to ... still an exponentially growing process that everyone was exposed to. Maybe it spread the pandemic phase out to 2 months instead of 1 (based on my memory of watching the stats at the time).

                The vaccine didn't cut down on the number of infections. It was strictly personal protection. Members of my family regularly get COVID.

                  lostlogin 11 hours ago

                  > Why do I need to source anything? Nobody credible ever claimed the vaccines would slow the spread

                  How much polio or small pox have you seen?

                  defrost 11 hours ago

                  > We see ~12 million confirmed COVID cases

                  but only 5,025 and 19,265 deaths.

                  Vaccination slowed the spread of the primary varients and reduced the health impacts on those that tested positive for COVID by preloading the immune response.

                    roenxi 10 hours ago

                    Yeah. That is a really good argument for recommending people get the vaccine. But it concedes any reason to start coercive medical treatments. The COVID vaccines were very much about personal protection. It circles back quite neatly to the idea that people should be allowed to make their own determination about what is good for their health, what isn't and what risk tolerance they are personally comfortable with.

                    The people arguing that collective action knows best once again blew their credibility with COVID, making up the theory about herd immunity was a big shot in the arm for the anti-vax movement. And as you can guess I'd rather side with the anti-vaxers, they're better friends than the authoritarians.

                  watwut 10 hours ago

                  You are just lying here. Obviously lying, because I guess, that is the only way to support the regime you wamt to support

                  surgical_fire 9 hours ago

                  > Why do I need to source anything?

                  "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".

                  I sourced my claims: smallpox, polio, measles, mumps.

                  You offered vibes instead of sources.

                    roenxi 8 hours ago

                    > I sourced my claims: smallpox, polio, measles, mumps.

                    1. That isn't what sourcing a claim means. It means to provide sources for why your claims are true; or at least where you heard the claim first. Picking specific examples is helpful, but it isn't providing a source.

                    And despite those examples, I still catch an infections disease ... basically annually.

                    2. I suppose I assumed it was going to be made obvious by context, but I don't care about smallpox, polio, measles or mumps and I'm not talking about them. Nobody forced me to do anything in relation to them, nobody threatened my livelihood over them and I don't feel at any risk of being forbidden from leaving my house because of them. It is a good point but I didn't intend to talk about it - it stands alone as a point and beyond that I don't care. Since you bought it up more then once you get this paragraph. But if it is necessary to put up with measles to put the authoritarians in a box? So be it. The anti-vaxers are the lesser of two evils, they're minnows compared to the sharks who were showing their colours through COVID; we're lucky that episode only lasted long enough for the authoritarians to do terrible economic damage.

                      surgical_fire 8 hours ago

                      > That isn't what sourcing a claim means

                      Absolutely is. Those are examples of serious, deadly, infectious plagues that were either eradicated or seriously contained by vaccines.

                      > but I don't care about smallpox, polio, measles or mumps and I'm not talking about them.

                      I know you don't care about evidence. You care about vibes. Vaccines are icky, governments are authoritarian, you want to live in your fairy-tale self-serving world and society be damned.

                      I was replying to you not under any fantasy that I would convince you otherwise. I understood pretty well from the outset what sort of rhetoric you were on about.

                      I replied so it was made clear for others what exactly is being discussed here.

                      > But if it is necessary to put up with measles

                      It is. I am extremely grateful that the advances in medicine in the past couple of centuries allowed me to live without having to worry about serious plagues such as measles.

                      Either way, you didn't disappoint me. Have a great weekend.

          BoingBoomTschak 12 hours ago

          It's also worth mentioning that some people seem to have a worriyingly short and/or selective memory. I mean, how could you ever trust your government on such matters after stuff like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_Syphilis_Study or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contaminated_haemophilia_blood... ?

            hshdhdhj4444 7 hours ago

            No one is asking you to “believe the government”. We’re asking to believe the scientific literature and the non partisan experts who decide these recommendations.

            Further, these recommendations are not new. They have a track record. You can look io the number of lives they’ve saved/reduced damage to.

            The people who insist that we should throw out the expert advice based on openly available scientific research and literature in favor of one person’s feelings because he happens to hold a politically powerful position are the ones asking us to trust the government blindly. Actually, not blindly, but contrary to the evidence that our eyes see.

              BoingBoomTschak 5 hours ago

              I didn't write "belief" but "trust", which is a related but different thing. You'd be very naïve to think that the powers that be are automagically uninvolved in both the Scientific Truth^tm that trickles down to the layperson and the source research and studies (both due to funding, censorship and outright lies in some hot fields like sociology).

              tl;dr: I'm ready to believe in the vaccine theory, not in the infrastructure; applied science doesn't live in a vacuum

      nwienert 14 hours ago

      Just curious - it aligns closer to Denmark or Japan. Do you hold the same view of the regulations there?

      duxup 2 hours ago

      If generally lower vaccination rates only impacted the unvaccinated, most folks wouldn't really care. I wish that were the case.

      The sad part is that the overall participation or lack of it impacts everyone, including the vaccinated, those with health problems and so on.

      shikshake 14 hours ago
        spiderfarmer 13 hours ago

        How long before Americans have to go through mandatory testing at the airports of their destinations?

      tempodox 12 hours ago

      Those kids are not responsible for their parents’ defects.

      CursedSilicon 15 hours ago

      Why not? It's not like they want elections. Either the MAGA voters or the MAGA king

  • khelavastr 12 hours ago

    Imagine all the lives saved from fewer immune stimulants.

      lostlogin 11 hours ago

      Imagining isn’t the way to do this. There is hard data on the harm vaccines cause and the benefit provided. That’s the point of the scientific organisations US taxes fund.

      Abandoning a scientific approach and using whatever this administration is doing is what was voted for I guess.

  • dantefff 14 hours ago

    Looks like they want to reduce population

      odyssey7 13 hours ago

      Vaccines are unpopular with many. I don’t see why the motives have to be more complicated than that.

      But, I would say that trying a different approach that acknowledges how patients feel could help rebuild public trust in healthcare institutions. Taking a broader viewpoint, this could save lives.

        duskdozer 12 hours ago

        I think the idea that changing stated recommendations based on the public opinion is a questionable strategy that can just backfire into more distrust and behavior that follows the "true" best practices even less as they look for the 'sensible position between extremes'[1].

        There are a lot of examples from the response to COVID: frequent early mixed messages around the effectiveness of masks for preventing infection and transmission not based on the actual understanding of said effectiveness but in order to manage supply shortages, arguable overstatement about the one-time long-term effectiveness of the initial vaccines against infection and transmission and not just severity of disease, overemphasis on ineffective measures like hand hygiene or six-foot-distancing over effective measures like air cleaning and masking based on the perceived willingness of the public to follow them, reduction of the stated duration of contagiousness without evidence of such.

        It's one thing if it's genuinely not known what the best practices are, but knowing and misleading can confuse people who are willing to follow them and can further alienate skeptics who may seek out charlatans promising them the "real, unfiltered truth".

        [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_to_moderation

          odyssey7 6 hours ago

          Expert opinions are pluralistic, not a monolith, so there’s a judgement call when a policy is written. There is a spectrum of importance when you consider medical interventions. A pluralistic society, including pluralistic opinions among experts, is the norm outside of 1984. It’s just reality.

          Policymakers could prioritize more or fewer vaccines, and the reasons to prioritize any particular vaccine would be expected to change over the decades.

          Why the CDC isn’t prioritizing more vaccines might be seen as reckless to some. I think it’s a huge mistake that there isn’t a strep vaccine and a universal mandate for that, but it’s clearly not been historically prioritized. Strep has been known for decades to cause mental health conditions in children.

          On the other hand, some infections might be better handled by vaccinating around where cases show up, a capability that is possible only now that we have electronic medical records, better tests, the information era, etc. Just-in-time logistics is a huge success story of the modern world.

          Opinions of experts are important: expertise requires that opinions should change as the realities do.

          An expertise that’s required of a policymaker is to maintain the effectiveness of their institutions by translating expertise into policies that are actually listened to. We have serious warning signs that public trust in healthcare is disintegrating, and that the vaccination campaigns are failing. Policies that are more focused could play out better.

        psyklic 12 hours ago

        Infants have rights too. It's against the law for a "seatbelt skeptic" not to put their kid in a safety seat.

          odyssey7 6 hours ago

          As you increasingly mandate things that the public thinks are optional, eventually mandates in general start to look unimportant, and eventually you get less safety seat compliance.

          If there are some illnesses we can handle with without universal vaccination, then including those vaccines as mandates means you’ll eventually get less compliance for high-priority vaccines too. This is what we’ve seen play out when the public distrusts medical authorities. We live in a democratic society and (not) listening goes both ways.

            psyklic an hour ago

            How many deaths are acceptable to say we can "handle" an illness?

            Public health requires over 95% vaccination. There has never been a realistic path to that other than requiring students to be vaccinated to attend school. Without that requirement, even well meaning parents forget or may not make it a priority.

            It's not fair for kids and others vulnerable in society to die because certain parents are ignorant.

        watwut 10 hours ago

        Common Kennedy is THE person that worked very actively and hard to turn people against vaccines.

        He wanted to make them unpopular, partially succeeded and now is trying to remove them.

        UltraSane 13 hours ago

        Vaccines eradicated some of the worst diseases humans had. If thousands of kids were paralyzed by polio vaccines would become very popular again.

        ndsipa_pomu 10 hours ago

        Maybe we should bring back leeches if we're just going to ignore medical science and instead just go with the feelings of a misinformed public.

          odyssey7 6 hours ago

          Do you want public advice that is followed (useful) or public advice that is ignored (not useful)?

          The ability to have the public accept advice is a capability that has unquestionably eroded. However smart an expert may be, they aren’t helping anyone if people won’t listen when they speak.

            ndsipa_pomu 5 hours ago

            Public advice should be as complete and accurate as possible. If there's a recommendation that is unlikely to be followed, then that can be indicated along with the alternate next best suggestion. e.g. "COVID prevention is best with a complete Hazmat suit, but just a mask may provide some benefit"

            The job of experts is mainly to provide information and the job of the public is to pay attention to relevant information. If the public decides to ignore advice (e.g. "no level of alcohol consumption is safe"), then that doesn't change what the advice should be.

              odyssey7 5 hours ago

              I appreciate the nuance you’re bringing to this topic.

              The child vaccinations schedule is a step further than public advice due to its role in clinical practice and social expectation setting. Policymakers have a job that stands apart from that of both the medical experts and the general public, and the child vaccinations schedule is a policy document, not simply a medical one.