2025 Letter

52 points | by Amorymeltzer 2 hours ago

20 comments

  • 152334H 31 minutes ago

    > Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without preparing for it.

    great line

      apples_oranges 11 minutes ago

      It's not clear what the US plan even is. Move all manufacturing back home and compete with China ASAP?

        jaapz 2 minutes ago

        With trump at the helm, do you think there is much of a plan?

        anon7000 7 minutes ago

        Even if it’s a goal, it’s not a plan. The article talks about it, but Biden’s push for manufacturing wasn’t very aggressive, and Trump has basically stopped it. We’ve seen a loss in manufacturing jobs from tariffs and Trump idiotically deported Korean engineers working in local battery production plants. Simply protecting our existing companies (which are not very efficient, see shipbuilders) is not even close to enough to competing

  • kaonwarb 42 minutes ago

    I recommend Dan’s book (https://danwang.co/breakneck/) to those wanting to better understand China - and the United States.

      libraryofbabel 18 minutes ago

      One of the best books I read this year. I think a lot of HN readers will like it. A really balanced take on China that also digs deep into the perennial question of “why can’t we build big infrastructure projects in the US?” that comes up here quite often.

  • pityJuke 33 minutes ago

    As someone unfamiliar with the author, I had a deep amount of cynicism for the length of this piece... but damn, it's good, top to bottom.

      nozzlegear 5 minutes ago

      I agree. At first I briefly skimmed it and thought it was going to be a puff piece on China's AI efforts (unfair of me), but a couple paragraphs caught me and I read the whole thing. I'm glad I did.

  • url00 40 minutes ago

    As often the case with Dan's letters, a well balanced take on many issues. I particularly appreciated the thoughts on AI and (what I read) the undertone of infrastructure being the real differentiator between the US effort and China. We'll see how it plays out this year. "May you live in exciting times" etc.

  • coderatlarge 19 minutes ago

    from the piece:

    “ the median age of the latest Y Combinator cohort is only 24, down from 30 just three years ago “

    does yc publish stats to validate?

      et1337 7 minutes ago

      Didn’t we just have a front page article about the average founder age increasing well beyond 30 this year? Is it a non-normal distribution or what?

  • strange_quark 17 minutes ago

    > I believe that Silicon Valley possesses plenty of virtues. To start, it is the most meritocratic part of America.

    Oh come on, this is so untrue. Silicon Valley loves credentialism and networking, probably more than anywhere else. Except the credentials are the companies you’ve worked for or whether you know some founder or VC, instead of what school you went to or which degrees you have.

    I went to a smaller college that the big tech firms didn’t really recruit from. I spent the first ~5 years of my career working for a couple smaller companies without much SV presence. Somehow I lucked into landing a role at a big company that almost everyone has definitely heard of. I didn’t find my coworkers to necessarily be any smarter or harder working than the people I worked with previously. But when I decided it was time to move on, companies that never gave me the time of day before were responding to my cold applies or even reaching out to _me_ to beg me to interview.

    And don’t get me started on the senior leadership and execs I’ve seen absolutely run an entire business units into the ground and lose millions of dollars and cost people their jobs, only to “part ways” with the company, then immediately turn around and raise millions of dollars from the same guys whose money they just lost.

      usui 12 minutes ago

      I guess I'll ask since you strongly disagree and ignoring the fact this is very reductionist: In your opinion, what is the most meritocratic part of America?

      fastball 13 minutes ago

      Judging you based on the work you've done seems... very meritocratic to me?

  • jstummbillig 23 minutes ago

    Wait, how funny is this guy. That's an easy top 10 funny person out of nowhere in my life.

  • ossa-ma 14 minutes ago

    The beginning perfectly embodies the culture in Silicon Valley and touches on a crucial part that I notice when I visit: the complete lack of self expression or as I would put it ZERO drip.

    Remove the tech, what does SF contribute to the world wrt culture? Especially when compared to other metropolitan cities: NY, London, LA, Tokyo.

      dpark 3 minutes ago

      Maybe I’m missing some nuance but are you just saying that folks in Silicon Valley aren’t cool?

  • bix6 31 minutes ago

    Dam Wang, good read!

  • teiferer 12 minutes ago

    > One way that Silicon Valley and the Communist Party resemble each other is that both are serious, self-serious, and indeed, completely humorless.

    There is a commedy show literally called Silicon Valley making fun of what's going on in the valley and everybody I know in tech loves it and appreciates the humor.

  • pr337h4m 23 minutes ago

    > Which of the tech titans are funny? In public, they tend to speak in one of two registers. The first is the blandly corporate tone we’ve come to expect when we see them dragged before Congressional hearings or fireside chats. The second leans philosophical, as they compose their features into the sort of reverie appropriate for issuing apocalyptic prophecies on AI.

    This is just not accurate though? For example, this post from a tech titan might not necessarily be that funny but it's neither blandly corporate nor philosophical: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2006548935372902751