What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?
I'm not sure how much of "the stock market" TSLA makes up, but at current valuation, it makes up 1.9% of VTI (so that's a good estimation). So it could blink out of existence and only take VTI down 2%. (2% is significant of course.) But more likely might be a slow erosion while other components grow, making index funds and "the entire stock market" quite resilient to such a shock.
Solving autonomy is the hardest technical challenge right now, way harder than creating a frontier LLM AI. Tesla has basically solved it. So to argue sarcastically about Tesla is in my opinion being ignorant. I get the Elon hate, but he is usually correct in his predictions, albeit late
What exactly has Tesla solved, automation-wise? Not sure what you are specifically referring to? I am being everything except ignorant, I look at things with my own eyes and do not fall for car-salesman tricks. Perhaps I gave him the benefit of the doubt initially but after decade+ of overpromising and underdelivering (underdelivering might be the understatement of the century) forgive me if I do not believe what a car salesman is pitching. I do not hate Elon at all, actually think he's one of the greatest visionaries of our time and probably the greatest salesman in the history of mankind.
I don't think people have quite realized Cybercab is also a hedge against vehicle sales dropping. Musk can keep the factory at high utilization by pumping out cabs at cost and start collecting rideshare income.
Tesla just announced Cybercab is now in production.
I don't think you quite realize that Cybercab is a long, long way from scaling into a profitable business.
Safety and remote drivers are a huge barrier to achieving this. As is legal liability for accidents. Uber sidesteps this issue completely since it is the driver's responsibility.
Word is that Robotaxi is crashing at a higher rate than human drivers in Austin --- even with safety drivers.
Based on Tesla's stock price and P/E ratio, it would seem most people do believe what you're suggesting, right?
But I am curious what the end-to-end math looks like for all costs incurred in Cybercab rideshare services, maintenance, insurance, repairs, and so forth, and how that calculates out per mile. And of course the volume of rideshares, given the tepid pace most Tesla announcements come to fruition and scale.
The Model 3 / Y scaled better than many predicted, but since then, other promises have gone the other way.
Previous:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46433480 A Second Year of Decline for Tesla's EVs (electrek.co) 1 day ago (2 comments)
Original headline: Tesla (TSLA) does something unusual ahead of Q4 delivery results
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46436205 Tesla Compiles Downbeat Average Estimates for Its Vehicle Sales (bloomberg.com) ~1 day ago
stock will reach an all time high based on this news..
If they can just get down to 0 sales then costs will drop significantly, that should really boost the stock price.
TSLA going pre-revenue.
Maybe they will even invent post-revenue economics. Or, with the benefit of the doubt, between-revenues economics.
What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?
I'm not sure how much of "the stock market" TSLA makes up, but at current valuation, it makes up 1.9% of VTI (so that's a good estimation). So it could blink out of existence and only take VTI down 2%. (2% is significant of course.) But more likely might be a slow erosion while other components grow, making index funds and "the entire stock market" quite resilient to such a shock.
you wrote TSLA and reality in the same sentence :)
people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)
Solving autonomy is the hardest technical challenge right now, way harder than creating a frontier LLM AI. Tesla has basically solved it. So to argue sarcastically about Tesla is in my opinion being ignorant. I get the Elon hate, but he is usually correct in his predictions, albeit late
> Tesla has basically solved it
What exactly has Tesla solved, automation-wise? Not sure what you are specifically referring to? I am being everything except ignorant, I look at things with my own eyes and do not fall for car-salesman tricks. Perhaps I gave him the benefit of the doubt initially but after decade+ of overpromising and underdelivering (underdelivering might be the understatement of the century) forgive me if I do not believe what a car salesman is pitching. I do not hate Elon at all, actually think he's one of the greatest visionaries of our time and probably the greatest salesman in the history of mankind.
...you forgot "terraforming Mars" :)
The Tesla board should just put a bumper sticker on Musk that said "I bought this before Elon went crazy". Like, how did you not know.
What Musk really excels at selling --- hype.
tesla stock: positive lol
I don't think people have quite realized Cybercab is also a hedge against vehicle sales dropping. Musk can keep the factory at high utilization by pumping out cabs at cost and start collecting rideshare income.
Tesla just announced Cybercab is now in production.
I don't think you quite realize that Cybercab is a long, long way from scaling into a profitable business.
Safety and remote drivers are a huge barrier to achieving this. As is legal liability for accidents. Uber sidesteps this issue completely since it is the driver's responsibility.
Word is that Robotaxi is crashing at a higher rate than human drivers in Austin --- even with safety drivers.
https://www.technology.org/2025/11/03/teslas-robotaxi-fleet-...
I don’t think you realize that Tesla has basically solved autonomy. you are obviously not using the latest Tesla version of FSD
Did you forget the /s
Based on Tesla's stock price and P/E ratio, it would seem most people do believe what you're suggesting, right?
But I am curious what the end-to-end math looks like for all costs incurred in Cybercab rideshare services, maintenance, insurance, repairs, and so forth, and how that calculates out per mile. And of course the volume of rideshares, given the tepid pace most Tesla announcements come to fruition and scale.
The Model 3 / Y scaled better than many predicted, but since then, other promises have gone the other way.
And everything they've announced has come to pass before...
so we should expect to see it by 2065?