I've been sitting here in front of my keyboard for a while thinking of a nice way to say it, but I just can't come up with anything. So I'll just state the plain and obvious seen from a European (Danish) perspective:
America is moving fast towards some sort of fascism, and noone seems to be doing anything about it. So if you are American this is the time for you to rise up and show the rest of the world that there is another America. If you don't noone else will, and things will only get worse.
I'll leave you with a few quotes to get started on your journey back towards a functional democracy:
"A little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical" - Thomas Jefferson
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing—after they've tried everything else," - Winston Churchill
Elizabeth Willing Powel: "Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?" to Which Benjamin Franklin replied: "“A republic, if you can keep it.”
> "one of the largest sources of climate alarmism in the country."
It's amazing how fast free speech has been destroyed in the past year. Especially when it comes to censorship of science and science's conclusions.
However, I heard many many more people complaining about a lack of free speech in 2023 and 2024 than now. I really wonder what happened to all those principles! It's shocking.
"When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles,"
The two recent examples I can think of are the Gaza ceasefire, as well as the general concept (and not actual implementation) of re-industrializing the USA in the context of China's dominance.
I tried to help them steelman this but the only couple examples of good things I could come up with, I’ve not seen liberals complain about. Hm. Coming up blank.
Meanwhile, in Europe. I don't see people getting arrested in America for supporting climate change, but people get arrested for criticizing climate policy in Europe. Typical left tactic of hyperbolizing something into something it's not in order to justify using the tactic on people you don't like.
They are masters of projection and compartmentalization.
These are the same people who were "being censored by the media" while going on Fox News to complain about it.
Whining about freedom of speech, or the "demise of Western values", while banning school libraries worth of classic works of western literature for being "subversive".
Their heads would probably explode reading Plato or J.S. Mill.
This doesn't really have anything to do with constitutional "free speech". This is a government agency, not the personal research blog of a private citizen.
Government agencies don't have "free speech".
That said, it's a shame this is happening. Maybe a future administration will reopen it.
Long horizon events like this on Polymarket stabilize around a % odds corresponding to time value of money. You can get 4% buying risk free CDs for that horizon.
this is not true - if you know for certainty that trump will be president through winning an election in 2028 you can make over 20X your money.
at the end of the day people don't actually believe it, which is why trump is valued little. people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.
I am not sure that is a useful principle. I tend to keep an umbrella around in the car regardless whether the forecast calls for rain. Do these people similarly avoid stock markets, insurance, and similar products in the risk space?
If Trump indeed manages to turn the country into a dictatorship I think winning money on polymarket is going to be the last thing you'll be thinking about
A more charitable explanation is that people believe in a larger set of nearly equivalent outcomes that are not captured in that market.
Some possible outcomes (I personally don't believe they are very probable), but...
There is no "call" or inaugurated at all, Trump stays on via some kind of "emergency". The market will fail to resolve to an outcome (based on what it says).
Somehow (via a normal election, or the outcome being decided in the House) one of Trumps sons becomes president.
This, I think, illustrates some of the problems with far out edge cases in prediction markets. Nailing down all of the possible outcomes exactly is hard.
It seems the poster is of the low probability belief that at some point before Nov 2028 elections will be suspended and we will move to some kind of imperial system instead.
The issue is that even if I win that bet, they’re paying me my winnings in USD, which is backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government, which has been irreparably destroyed.
If I can buy, say, low probability insurance that that will give me a squad of mercenaries and a jet to a bunker somewhere safe, I’d be far more apt to put my money where my mouth is.
It’s not a bad bet. It’s just a dumb bet. The payout doesn’t match the risk.
The usual way for this to happen doesn’t involve suspending elections. And I’d not bet on a guy that old and infirm winning again in 2028 even if he could legally run.
We’ll see how ICE at select polling places and iffy federal-run voter role purges go in 2026. Should set the tone for how far they try to go in 2028.
Polling places closing early, terrible weather, computers off-line, etc., will of course drive people from voting. Seeing an ICE agent isn't going to deter a citizen from voting any more than deter people taking vacations overseas. I'd be more than happy to show ID to vote as the rest of the world does.
I think that's a reasonable worry, but I'd encourage you to make sure you do remember this prediction, and update accordingly if they don't suppress votes or the voter suppression doesn't work. I was worried about Elon Musk's efforts to buy off a Wisconsin judicial election earlier this year and became a lot more confident in democracy when it didn't work at all.
One of the two things I mentioned is already happening, and it’ll be pretty surprising if the Republican army isn’t used for voter intimidation. Why even have it, if not for that kind of thing?
It’s not like they didn’t already use both covert and overt means to try to overturn an election, and get caught red-handed on both (I mean, one was televised live, so…) Much cleaner to put in the effort on Election Day itself.
My understanding is that, in many ways, government agencies are more constitutionally protected speech-wise than private entities, precisely because any hierarchical attempt to punish them for their speech would be coming from the government rather than private entities. IANAL (or even American) though so grain of salt.
In any case, a lot of the right-wing hypocrisy around free speech that was being called out by OP didn't have much to do with constitutionally protected freedom of speech either - it was complaining about things like private companies (e.g. Twitter) shadowbanning people.
This is incorrect. Government agencies have exactly zero free speech rights. They are part of the Executive Branch and as such are instrumentalities of the President. Full stop.
"The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America." U.S. Const., Art. II, Sec. 1, cl. 1.
Any discussion about the constitution and jurisprudence and rights should probably be assumed to be referring to the Before Times, when those things still mattered. Sigh.
The complaints about “free speech” I heard from conservatives over the past five years often had nothing to do with constitutional free speech, either. They were almost always directed at private companies and organizations moderating content; from time to time someone would try to claim a government nexus, but it was rare and always something like a request to take down some content (that often got rejected.) Given that we’ve spent years having a broad conversation about the principle of free speech, to suddenly demand that we restrict the conversation to one about pure First Amendment requirements seems a bit disingenuous.
Speech is important. Scientific speech more important. A government right now is using its power to selectively defund and wipe out big chunks of scientific research and communications that ultimately exist to protect your future. You should be livid and working to inform people how dangerous this is, not making poor excuses.
> A government right now is using its power to selectively defund and wipe out big chunks of scientific research and communications that ultimately exist to protect your future.
This is the significant point. The govt is defunding yet another scientific research institute. To me it seems more productive to get more specific and more substantive from there: How much of the research presently carried out at NCAR will continue? Are there alternative institutes or sources of funding that might save some of it? What are the likely tangible implications? Is the whole place even closing down or just some of it?
Going in the other direction, less specific, more amorphous abstraction about whether or not this is a free speech issue risks derailing the conversation into semantics.
There are interesting questions about wider meaning of free speech than what's protected by the first amendment, but getting moralistic because someone doesn't consider this a free speech issue, while you both agree that it's government defunding a research institute, and that it's bad, seems unnecessarily fractious
You’re responding to is Matthew Green, who has done more for deployed cryptography and internet privacy than most people alive. He has absolutely “hit the pavement”
> They were almost always directed at private companies and organizations moderating content
Yes. They were motivated by private individuals losing their livelihood, rather than by organizations losing government funding that was not a priori owed to them.
> You should be livid and working to inform people how dangerous this is, not making poor excuses.
I’m from EU but here’s my take on this. This has nothing to do with freedom of speech. Nobody forbids those people from NCAR to speak up. The administration simply doesn’t want to pay to cultivate their freedom of speech because NCAR is funded in 95% by the federal government.
Not such a shock for people paying attention. Groups have been pushing back about inequality and climate, healthcare, for decades and just ignored. Every political issue in our faces now was called out as a future problem years ago by various groups. Water is finally too hot now for frogs in the middle of pot.
Free speech doesn't create an obligation. It's not a binding magic. It's irrelevancy hasn't just happened. It's been a slow death.
The shift to information age and science education did not start until after the Boomers and much of GenX were in and out of school and college. The world for them was cheap and just winging it. Science! Bah! Uncle Rico can still throw them balls over that mountain!
Was warning people 15 years ago the now 80 year olds in charge are nihilistic and not going to change; they will be dead and are just trolling youth about caring. They’re self selecting biology.
Takes $800k/yr to have the buying power $200k/yr had in 1980. The rise in inequality and the global temperature follow a growth pattern that was way too normal to be winging it; what's been allowed economically has been very carefully studied and managed to preserve freedom of agency for the elders. Same as environment:
It seems you're unaware just how many people are climate change sceptics - and not just in the uneducated groups, it's all over the spectrum.
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised about this at all. If anything, I think it might even be the same cause: because climate change sceptics were being suppressed before Trump.
To be upfront: I'm not American, but it's hard not to notice how the narrative has changed all over the internet.
My personal perspective to the climate crisis has always been a defeatist attitude, I was always in favor of green energy etc, but that's primarily because it would also improve the local area, Air quality etc. from a climate change perspective, it was always pointless, because that's a global issue and cannot be solved by internal regulation in a singular country
The right has destroyed free speech when compared to all the people up in arms about the left basically pushing around the edges, trying to prevent genocidal propaganda from being dispersed.
I'd assert the alarmism is real - even if you disagree with this particular administration/action.
Over the summer in the California valley, your computer will scream at you in bright red text it's hot outside. You'll even receive emergency messages on your phone, tv and radio from the government when it reaches triple-digits. There's a joke from someone I can't recall, but the gist is "we used to call it summer...".
Just recently, California declared a state of emergency over a winter storm - a usual/normal occurrence for this time of year as well.
Normal and completely natural weather events are being used to create an environment of alarmism and fear. This is part of why our youth are so convinced the world is going to end $NEXT_YEAR - they've grown up in a world were the government constantly tells them to be afraid of normal, seasonal weather.
Even calling what the national lab does "alarmism" is objectively a lie meant to distort and politicize basic and important science. I don't need to tell you the political party of the person from the quote because that political party has been working for six a long time to take non-partisan science and politicize it and use that politicization to divide the country.
There is no national lab producing "alarmism" and calling it that as justification for cutting funding is meant as a justification for restricting free speech and free science.
>... calling [something] [an inherently subjective term] is objectively...
Sorry, I don't follow. At any rate, you're replying to a post that gave object examples of things that actually happened, and you made not attempt to explain why the things the other person considered unreasonable are actually reasonable.
> calling it that as justification for cutting funding is meant as a justification for restricting free speech
Freedom of speech as a philosophical concept does not entail entitlement to funding, never mind 1A.
I'm not sure how/why you are asserting this is a "free speech" or "free science" issue. The government isn't obligated to fund this (or any) lab - private donors are free to step in and continue funding.
You're complaining about the level of weather notifications. Those exist because people die in the heat and they die in big storms and now there's more technology to make people think about it before driving their car into a flash flood.
There are severe weather alerts even in red-states that don't believe the climate is changing at all. Because they do notice when people die.
Maybe that's too much "big government" for you tastes - "oh no, they made my phone beep!" - but...
That's not really the same thing as research into knowing what is going on long-term.
>your computer will scream at you in bright red text it's hot outside. You'll even receive emergency messages on your phone, tv and radio from the government when it reaches triple-digits
In Portland, where I used to live, there are more hundred-plus-degree days and heat deaths in the last decade than in the city's entire recorded history. The city has had to open cooling centers for extended periods every summer for vulnerable people, something that was never needed before outside of specific single-year exceptional heat waves.
The production of ignorance is booming as its trajectory takes it from roots in advertising, then lobbying, then political campaigns to center stage in political strategy and official government business.
I suspect the academics who study culturally cultivated ignorance will be playing catchup for at least a decade after this administration!
It's a shame politicians can't be kept accountable tens of years from now. It would be great that if in 25 years it turns out global warming does indeed cause huge problems for humans, we could sue the politicians that took irresponsible risks with the environment. Now they can just focus on short term gains, and ignore all the long term side effects.
I really think we need to change the system to create some sort of accountability here. I think a number of people in the current government need to go prison.
> It's a shame politicians can't be kept accountable tens of years from now. It would be great that if in 25 years it turns out global warming does indeed cause huge problems for humans, we could sue the politicians that took irresponsible risks with the environment. Now they can just focus on short term gains, and ignore all the long term side effects.
This is a super interesting perspective.. but instead of only looking to the future, could we apply this to the past?
aka Were their predictions about global warming in 2015, 2000, or earlier that drove policy that ended up being incorrect?
Between the fast food, sports, Fox News and short form video Americans might as well be a different species at this point. We’re basically domesticated cattle.
"You can't blame us for that, that was President Newsom's 2034 policy! Our climate expert says so, and his credentials is that he's the go-to climate expert that Fox News turns to whenever the libs talk about climate change!"...
And the J.D. Vance nominated judge will say "not guilty!"...
A good start for actually holding people accountable in the US would be prosecuting the entire chain of command responsible for blowing up unarmed South American boats and then murdering the survivors. That one's concrete, proven to have happened, and illegal under multiple standards of law, so if we can't at least make that happen anything else is unlikely.
>It would be great that if in 25 years it turns out global warming does indeed cause huge problems for humans, we could sue the politicians that took irresponsible risks with the environment.
And if it turns out to be a big nothingburger, can we sue the politicians to recover the billions in taxpayer dollars that were diverted to their cronies on projects to nowhere during the green gold rush?
Better safe than sorry. If the risk is significant, and the impact is big, it is sensible to have plan to address risks. You probably have many expenses you hope you never need, like all sorts of insurances. And even if it turns out climate changes was less impactful than forcasted, change sparks innovation and creates economic opportunity. E.g, these days electrucs cars are better than fossil fuel cars (my wife wont let me lease another fossil fuel car, she likes the way the electric one drives much better), and solar electricity is cheaper than fossil electricity.
There are a vast number of scientists in agreement with each other that it is not a nothingburger.
It takes nothing but stark intentional ignorance to make a statement like yours.
It absolutely boggles my mind at the suggestion that green energy is all profit seeking, as if the counterparties in big oil aren't also just as or more interested in maintaining status quo in the opposite direction. Yet I never see someone who expresses ideas like this recognize or acknowledge that.
Switching to renewables and mass transit can improve the quality of life for people who live in urban environments because it makes the air they breath cleaner.
This is a major reason why developing countries are leapfrogging the west on this sort of stuff. Massive S.E. Asian cities are experiencing tremendous health benefits from the green revolution.
It's mostly built atop problem shifting. For example, Seattle fought to send their compost and build wind farms in eastern Washington - where it was in someone else's backyard.
Similar to battery recycling - which might end up being "recycled" by some 8 year old kid in SE Asia with a sledgehammer.
At worst the same way that performing CPR on a man with a heart attack is problem shifting, or feeding the hungry only makes them hungry again in the future.
Wind turbines are not problems. They are opportunities. Notice that thr specious bullshit problems cited with wind turbines go away in rural areas once farmers are the ones making money on them.
> It's mostly built atop problem shifting. For example, Seattle fought to send their compost and build wind farms in eastern Washington - where it was in someone else's backyard.
This is a silly opinion to have. It's like complaining that reinforcing police presence in an area is problem shifting because you'll still have crime taking place somewhere else. It's an attempt to frame any action as a false dilemma that forces an all-or-nothing logic based on specious reasoning.
If it doesn't turn into a nothingburger *, can we get back the glaciers, the climate and the people who died to help your own cronies get some more billions?
* (that is, if there's not a global conspiracy of pedo-scientists set to harm poor oil tycoons)
While I agree that the results of these policies are devastating, why blame the politicians? They were voted for, and it's not like they were hiding their agendas.
Well they kind of are, in that the real perps are not them but folks like the Koch family who fund entire think tanks and counter programming to serve their narrow interests. They give money to the politicians in exchange for this viewpoint. It gets woven into so much of a bubbles fabric that it becomes self-reinforcing.
Again, if the voters bought it they are responsible for it and not the advocates. There is a reason that nobody named in the Epstein files is running a normalize pedophilia campaign. Because contrary to the rhetoric about money being the end all in politics it doesn't work for everything.
People as a whole are not experts in every possible area, nor is everyone universally smart. When politics get bought at an entire party level for decades, it’s hard to place blame on those who allow it. Don’t forget that culture wars is used as a wedge such that everything is combined. People don’t get to vote on their issues, they vote on buckets of viewpoints.
Fox News literally had a segment on the difference between pedophilia and some other philia whose name I forget.. it was basically saying hey they weren’t 5, they were 14-16! That’s different! Wonder why they’d feel the need to air that viewpoint…
We can't afford scientist in Europe anymore, we have pensions to pay.
I suppose China does not need american scientist to work in China. They just need to make sure they can't work in the US. Which they are doing.
The only "funny" outcome is that they manage to fund a startup that develops tools to alleviate climate change, and explicitly reserve them to countries and states that believed in climate change in the first place.
But that would be mean. So, of course Florida can have it. It will just be slightly expensive for them.
The situation reminds me of that New Yorker comic: "Yes, the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders"
Governments should be responsible for preventing these types of externalities as one of their core functions. There is no incentive for markets, consumers, and companies to deal with this, yet the forecast costs of climate change and sea level rise are (and will be) massive. Many places have some weak patchwork framework of private insurance and FEMA style funds, but without an actual pricing and enforcement system there's no way out of the warming feedback loop.
I was extremely disappointed in the failure of my (Canada's) government to articulate what a carbon tax was or how it worked to voters, and that allowed the opposition from both sides to chip at it until now it's a politically toxic idea.
The game theory of international accords is increasingly falling apart and countries will try to undercut each other on carbon pricing.
My wife worked there when we first met. She told me she knew where there was a Cray-1 sitting at the bottom of a stair well. Obviously this raised my level of interest. We went up there on the weekend and took each other's photo sitting on it. From memory it was a very low serial number having been shipped to <some-TLA> first then subsequently moved to NCAR. I also peered through the glass at various exotica in the machine room: YMP, KSR, TM that sort of thing. Great first date.
“Digging in on dying technologies” is an interesting framing.
There is no appetite for oil alternatives that would stop this from meaning the deaths of hundreds of thousands or more people.
The fact is there is no effective way to power a stable grid with modern renewables. Increasing the energy mix sustainably is great. But if people truly want to divest from oil and coal there number one issue right now should be how to onboard nuclear energy effectively. This has been true for decades at this point, but purist policies on the right and the left have left it completely unrealized or actively dismantled it.
Solar and batteries get cheaper to build and maintain every year (almost to an absurd degree, seriously, look at the charts for the past 2 decades), while nuclear stays the same price.
That's not to say that nuclear power is bad to have, but there's an extremely obvious trajectory here of cheap battery-backed solar everywhere, with few regulatory hurdles and obvious incentives for people to have their own mini solar systems and batteries that take load off the larger grid.
We can debate how much nuclear is needed, but renewables can do a lot, and just hoping that AI will bring nuclear fusion in 5 years is not a great strategy
biden shut down reporting, subsidies, and wound down almost everything. then trump came in and put in the worst villains from the brownstone institute and MAHA
I've been sitting here in front of my keyboard for a while thinking of a nice way to say it, but I just can't come up with anything. So I'll just state the plain and obvious seen from a European (Danish) perspective:
America is moving fast towards some sort of fascism, and noone seems to be doing anything about it. So if you are American this is the time for you to rise up and show the rest of the world that there is another America. If you don't noone else will, and things will only get worse.
I'll leave you with a few quotes to get started on your journey back towards a functional democracy:
"A little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical" - Thomas Jefferson
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing—after they've tried everything else," - Winston Churchill
Elizabeth Willing Powel: "Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?" to Which Benjamin Franklin replied: "“A republic, if you can keep it.”
Godspeed. I wish you the very best as a country.
> "one of the largest sources of climate alarmism in the country."
It's amazing how fast free speech has been destroyed in the past year. Especially when it comes to censorship of science and science's conclusions.
However, I heard many many more people complaining about a lack of free speech in 2023 and 2024 than now. I really wonder what happened to all those principles! It's shocking.
I think this sums it up pretty well.
"When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles,"
That’s exactly right.
Yeah, except there aren't even principles at play here. For example, streamline all regulatory approvals, oh except for disfavored groups: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/12/speed-act-passes...
The principles are difficult for you to detect because your values are things like truth or integrity. Their values are just about forming hierarchy.
This is of course the standard human view of our ingroup vs our outgroup.
The MAGA people, believe it or not, say very similar things about you.
I’m sure they do. But you can see the results of the current administration here.
It’s just pure reaction. Liberals favor renewable energy, so MAGA opposes it. Liberals favor climate science, so MAGA opposes it.
Sadly liberals are not immune from it either. Anything trump does no matter good or bad is considered bad.
Do you have a good example?
The two recent examples I can think of are the Gaza ceasefire, as well as the general concept (and not actual implementation) of re-industrializing the USA in the context of China's dominance.
Does any leftist have an example of anything good Trump has done?
I tried to help them steelman this but the only couple examples of good things I could come up with, I’ve not seen liberals complain about. Hm. Coming up blank.
Aerial Firefighting Enhancement Act of 2025
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/160...
Designating English as the Official Language of The United States
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/desi...
Enforcing Commonsense Rules of the Road for America's Truck Drivers
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/enfo...
GENIUS Act
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/158...
HALT Fentanyl Act
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/331...
Implementing the General Terms of the U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/06/fact-sheet-im...
Maintaining American Superiority by Improving Export Control Transparency Act
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/08/cong...
President Donald J. Trump Accelerates Federal Permitting of Data Center Infrastructure
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-pr...
President Donald J. Trump Ensures Efficient Funding Processes and Decisions for Energy and Critical Mineral Projects
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/06/fact-sheet-pr...
President Donald J. Trump Establishes Make America Beautiful Again Commission
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-pr...
President Donald J. Trump Promotes the Export of American AI Technologies
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-pr...
President Donald J. Trump Secures Peace and Prosperity in Malaysia
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/10/fact-sheet-pr...
President Trump signs Take It Down Act, addressing nonconsensual deepfakes.
https://apnews.com/article/take-it-down-deepfake-trump-melan...
President Donald J. Trump Takes Immediate Action to Increase American Mineral Production
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-pr...
The United States and Indonesia Reach Historic Trade Deal
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-th...
Trump signs order to ease US marijuana regulations, sparking industry hopes
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-moving-ease-u...
I could go on but you get the idea ...
Downvotes are expected, of course. I can spare -4 HN points.
Enjoy :).
Which of these have been met with scorn by liberals? You seem to not get the idea...
I'm a liberal, and the current administration de-scheduling Marijuana federally is a good thing. Also, a broken clock is right twice a day.
Examples?
That is very much in line with their principles. A more accurate quote for them is
"For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law."
"Rules for thee but not for me."
Meanwhile, in Europe. I don't see people getting arrested in America for supporting climate change, but people get arrested for criticizing climate policy in Europe. Typical left tactic of hyperbolizing something into something it's not in order to justify using the tactic on people you don't like.
They are masters of projection and compartmentalization.
These are the same people who were "being censored by the media" while going on Fox News to complain about it.
Whining about freedom of speech, or the "demise of Western values", while banning school libraries worth of classic works of western literature for being "subversive".
Their heads would probably explode reading Plato or J.S. Mill.
I'm not aware of any books being banned, let alone any classic works of western literature. Can you provide any examples?
> how fast free speech has been destroyed
This doesn't really have anything to do with constitutional "free speech". This is a government agency, not the personal research blog of a private citizen.
Government agencies don't have "free speech".
That said, it's a shame this is happening. Maybe a future administration will reopen it.
> Maybe a future administration will reopen it
Future administration?
every time someone says nonsense like this I ask them to take me up on it: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...
I have 100k NO on trump. it's free money if someone seriously thinks there won't be any "future administration".
of course once there's money at stake they grumble and say there probably will be an election after all <_<
Long horizon events like this on Polymarket stabilize around a % odds corresponding to time value of money. You can get 4% buying risk free CDs for that horizon.
this is not true - if you know for certainty that trump will be president through winning an election in 2028 you can make over 20X your money.
at the end of the day people don't actually believe it, which is why trump is valued little. people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.
> people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.
There are in fact people who avoid gambling on general principle, unrelated to any one particular thing they're being pressured to bet on.
I am not sure that is a useful principle. I tend to keep an umbrella around in the car regardless whether the forecast calls for rain. Do these people similarly avoid stock markets, insurance, and similar products in the risk space?
Because nothing screams you're serious more than throwing large sums of money at a shady gambling website.
people who claim to know the winning lotto numbers but never buy tickets shouldn't be taken seriously =)
If Trump indeed manages to turn the country into a dictatorship I think winning money on polymarket is going to be the last thing you'll be thinking about
>> people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.
Either that, or they don’t have money to throw at dumb bets.
A more charitable explanation is that people believe in a larger set of nearly equivalent outcomes that are not captured in that market.
Some possible outcomes (I personally don't believe they are very probable), but...
There is no "call" or inaugurated at all, Trump stays on via some kind of "emergency". The market will fail to resolve to an outcome (based on what it says).
Somehow (via a normal election, or the outcome being decided in the House) one of Trumps sons becomes president.
This, I think, illustrates some of the problems with far out edge cases in prediction markets. Nailing down all of the possible outcomes exactly is hard.
Do you seriously think that polymarket, an anonymous tool where KGB can easily put some money for propaganda purposes, matters?
Can you explain what you mean by this comment?
I think that anyone paying attention knows exactly what he meant by that comment.
It seems the poster is of the low probability belief that at some point before Nov 2028 elections will be suspended and we will move to some kind of imperial system instead.
You can take them up on polymarket.
The issue is that even if I win that bet, they’re paying me my winnings in USD, which is backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government, which has been irreparably destroyed.
If I can buy, say, low probability insurance that that will give me a squad of mercenaries and a jet to a bunker somewhere safe, I’d be far more apt to put my money where my mouth is.
It’s not a bad bet. It’s just a dumb bet. The payout doesn’t match the risk.
The usual way for this to happen doesn’t involve suspending elections. And I’d not bet on a guy that old and infirm winning again in 2028 even if he could legally run.
We’ll see how ICE at select polling places and iffy federal-run voter role purges go in 2026. Should set the tone for how far they try to go in 2028.
Polling places closing early, terrible weather, computers off-line, etc., will of course drive people from voting. Seeing an ICE agent isn't going to deter a citizen from voting any more than deter people taking vacations overseas. I'd be more than happy to show ID to vote as the rest of the world does.
Ah to be white.
I think that's a reasonable worry, but I'd encourage you to make sure you do remember this prediction, and update accordingly if they don't suppress votes or the voter suppression doesn't work. I was worried about Elon Musk's efforts to buy off a Wisconsin judicial election earlier this year and became a lot more confident in democracy when it didn't work at all.
One of the two things I mentioned is already happening, and it’ll be pretty surprising if the Republican army isn’t used for voter intimidation. Why even have it, if not for that kind of thing?
It’s not like they didn’t already use both covert and overt means to try to overturn an election, and get caught red-handed on both (I mean, one was televised live, so…) Much cleaner to put in the effort on Election Day itself.
Deleted, I'm not sure what's the point of talking with people about for/against Trump at this point
Polymarkets are a place to put a dollar bet on one’s beliefs and the likelihood that belief will come true.
People sailing on as if this flip will have another standard flop is wild to me. I guess it may be self protection.
> Government agencies don't have "free speech".
My understanding is that, in many ways, government agencies are more constitutionally protected speech-wise than private entities, precisely because any hierarchical attempt to punish them for their speech would be coming from the government rather than private entities. IANAL (or even American) though so grain of salt.
In any case, a lot of the right-wing hypocrisy around free speech that was being called out by OP didn't have much to do with constitutionally protected freedom of speech either - it was complaining about things like private companies (e.g. Twitter) shadowbanning people.
This is incorrect. Government agencies have exactly zero free speech rights. They are part of the Executive Branch and as such are instrumentalities of the President. Full stop.
"The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America." U.S. Const., Art. II, Sec. 1, cl. 1.
(There are so-called independent agencies, but the constitutionality of true independence is in question in the Trump v. Slaughter case. You can read about it at https://www.oyez.org/cases/2025/25-332 or https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/12/court-seems-likely-to-sid... or https://reason.com/volokh/2025/12/17/trump-v-slaughter-was-t... or https://reason.com/volokh/2025/12/09/some-answers-to-justice... )
In theory, sure. In practice the Supreme Court's rulings mean President can now just fire anyone he wants whenever for any reason.
Any discussion about the constitution and jurisprudence and rights should probably be assumed to be referring to the Before Times, when those things still mattered. Sigh.
The complaints about “free speech” I heard from conservatives over the past five years often had nothing to do with constitutional free speech, either. They were almost always directed at private companies and organizations moderating content; from time to time someone would try to claim a government nexus, but it was rare and always something like a request to take down some content (that often got rejected.) Given that we’ve spent years having a broad conversation about the principle of free speech, to suddenly demand that we restrict the conversation to one about pure First Amendment requirements seems a bit disingenuous.
Speech is important. Scientific speech more important. A government right now is using its power to selectively defund and wipe out big chunks of scientific research and communications that ultimately exist to protect your future. You should be livid and working to inform people how dangerous this is, not making poor excuses.
> A government right now is using its power to selectively defund and wipe out big chunks of scientific research and communications that ultimately exist to protect your future.
This is the significant point. The govt is defunding yet another scientific research institute. To me it seems more productive to get more specific and more substantive from there: How much of the research presently carried out at NCAR will continue? Are there alternative institutes or sources of funding that might save some of it? What are the likely tangible implications? Is the whole place even closing down or just some of it?
Going in the other direction, less specific, more amorphous abstraction about whether or not this is a free speech issue risks derailing the conversation into semantics.
There are interesting questions about wider meaning of free speech than what's protected by the first amendment, but getting moralistic because someone doesn't consider this a free speech issue, while you both agree that it's government defunding a research institute, and that it's bad, seems unnecessarily fractious
> You should be livid and working to inform people how dangerous this is, not making poor excuses.
Making poor excuses? Don't tell me what to do. If you're so "livid" then you can go hit the pavement for both of us.
You’re responding to is Matthew Green, who has done more for deployed cryptography and internet privacy than most people alive. He has absolutely “hit the pavement”
That's great. He should keep doing it. Also study what the constitutional requirements and limitations of "free speech" are.
> They were almost always directed at private companies and organizations moderating content
Yes. They were motivated by private individuals losing their livelihood, rather than by organizations losing government funding that was not a priori owed to them.
> You should be livid and working to inform people how dangerous this is, not making poor excuses.
Or you could fund it.
You mean they were motivated by people losing their job, like when this government funding is gone? Thanks for playing.
I’m from EU but here’s my take on this. This has nothing to do with freedom of speech. Nobody forbids those people from NCAR to speak up. The administration simply doesn’t want to pay to cultivate their freedom of speech because NCAR is funded in 95% by the federal government.
What has closing a government agency to do with free speech?
Did you interpret the calls for the end of censoring and cancellations that all government agencies must continue to exist forever?
And if so is there any resemblance of logic behind that interpretation?
Not such a shock for people paying attention. Groups have been pushing back about inequality and climate, healthcare, for decades and just ignored. Every political issue in our faces now was called out as a future problem years ago by various groups. Water is finally too hot now for frogs in the middle of pot.
Free speech doesn't create an obligation. It's not a binding magic. It's irrelevancy hasn't just happened. It's been a slow death.
The shift to information age and science education did not start until after the Boomers and much of GenX were in and out of school and college. The world for them was cheap and just winging it. Science! Bah! Uncle Rico can still throw them balls over that mountain!
Was warning people 15 years ago the now 80 year olds in charge are nihilistic and not going to change; they will be dead and are just trolling youth about caring. They’re self selecting biology.
Takes $800k/yr to have the buying power $200k/yr had in 1980. The rise in inequality and the global temperature follow a growth pattern that was way too normal to be winging it; what's been allowed economically has been very carefully studied and managed to preserve freedom of agency for the elders. Same as environment:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ExxonMobil_climate_change_deni...
Same old stupid political inanity as when I was younger. It still works on a lot of people.
It seems you're unaware just how many people are climate change sceptics - and not just in the uneducated groups, it's all over the spectrum.
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised about this at all. If anything, I think it might even be the same cause: because climate change sceptics were being suppressed before Trump.
To be upfront: I'm not American, but it's hard not to notice how the narrative has changed all over the internet.
My personal perspective to the climate crisis has always been a defeatist attitude, I was always in favor of green energy etc, but that's primarily because it would also improve the local area, Air quality etc. from a climate change perspective, it was always pointless, because that's a global issue and cannot be solved by internal regulation in a singular country
The right has destroyed free speech when compared to all the people up in arms about the left basically pushing around the edges, trying to prevent genocidal propaganda from being dispersed.
I'd assert the alarmism is real - even if you disagree with this particular administration/action.
Over the summer in the California valley, your computer will scream at you in bright red text it's hot outside. You'll even receive emergency messages on your phone, tv and radio from the government when it reaches triple-digits. There's a joke from someone I can't recall, but the gist is "we used to call it summer...".
Just recently, California declared a state of emergency over a winter storm - a usual/normal occurrence for this time of year as well.
Normal and completely natural weather events are being used to create an environment of alarmism and fear. This is part of why our youth are so convinced the world is going to end $NEXT_YEAR - they've grown up in a world were the government constantly tells them to be afraid of normal, seasonal weather.
Even calling what the national lab does "alarmism" is objectively a lie meant to distort and politicize basic and important science. I don't need to tell you the political party of the person from the quote because that political party has been working for six a long time to take non-partisan science and politicize it and use that politicization to divide the country.
There is no national lab producing "alarmism" and calling it that as justification for cutting funding is meant as a justification for restricting free speech and free science.
>... calling [something] [an inherently subjective term] is objectively...
Sorry, I don't follow. At any rate, you're replying to a post that gave object examples of things that actually happened, and you made not attempt to explain why the things the other person considered unreasonable are actually reasonable.
> calling it that as justification for cutting funding is meant as a justification for restricting free speech
Freedom of speech as a philosophical concept does not entail entitlement to funding, never mind 1A.
I'm not sure how/why you are asserting this is a "free speech" or "free science" issue. The government isn't obligated to fund this (or any) lab - private donors are free to step in and continue funding.
The government is pulling fund g because they don't like the science and the outcomes of that science.
That is the government trying to perform censorship.
I'm sure plenty of oil tycoons will step in
Yes because "oil tycoons" are clearly the only wealthy people in this country.
Might it be that you can't rely on private funding for things that don't result in a profit?
And that there's some disincentive for wealthy people to go against the current administration's policies?
You're complaining about the level of weather notifications. Those exist because people die in the heat and they die in big storms and now there's more technology to make people think about it before driving their car into a flash flood.
There are severe weather alerts even in red-states that don't believe the climate is changing at all. Because they do notice when people die.
Maybe that's too much "big government" for you tastes - "oh no, they made my phone beep!" - but...
That's not really the same thing as research into knowing what is going on long-term.
You should explain all that patiently to the drowning polar bears up north.
Or maybe offer an alternative solution to the Svalbard seed bank? They actually need to pump water from melting ice outside nowadays.
>your computer will scream at you in bright red text it's hot outside. You'll even receive emergency messages on your phone, tv and radio from the government when it reaches triple-digits
That weather kills people.
Have you seen the charts which show the rate at which peak temperatures are rising?
> normal and completely natural
In Portland, where I used to live, there are more hundred-plus-degree days and heat deaths in the last decade than in the city's entire recorded history. The city has had to open cooling centers for extended periods every summer for vulnerable people, something that was never needed before outside of specific single-year exceptional heat waves.
https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2017/08/its_not_just_your...
https://www.wweek.com/news/2025/08/25/extreme-heat-claims-th...
The agnotologists[1] have never had it so good!
The production of ignorance is booming as its trajectory takes it from roots in advertising, then lobbying, then political campaigns to center stage in political strategy and official government business.
I suspect the academics who study culturally cultivated ignorance will be playing catchup for at least a decade after this administration!
(Assuming they are still around, of course.)
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agnotology
I feel quite ashamed, but I learned a word (and more behind). Thanks for sharing.
It's a shame politicians can't be kept accountable tens of years from now. It would be great that if in 25 years it turns out global warming does indeed cause huge problems for humans, we could sue the politicians that took irresponsible risks with the environment. Now they can just focus on short term gains, and ignore all the long term side effects.
I really think we need to change the system to create some sort of accountability here. I think a number of people in the current government need to go prison.
> It's a shame politicians can't be kept accountable tens of years from now. It would be great that if in 25 years it turns out global warming does indeed cause huge problems for humans, we could sue the politicians that took irresponsible risks with the environment. Now they can just focus on short term gains, and ignore all the long term side effects.
This is a super interesting perspective.. but instead of only looking to the future, could we apply this to the past?
aka Were their predictions about global warming in 2015, 2000, or earlier that drove policy that ended up being incorrect?
But punishing ex-presidents is what happens in banana republics!
We wouldn't want to become one of those! As long as we never hold leaders accountable I'm sure we'll be safe from that fate.
Who is speaking of 'presidents' ?
Oh they absolutely could be held accountable if enough people woke up. That’s a stretch though even for my active imagination.
I don't understand why we don't have more protests in the country. If this was happening in France we would have protests every day
Between the fast food, sports, Fox News and short form video Americans might as well be a different species at this point. We’re basically domesticated cattle.
"You can't blame us for that, that was President Newsom's 2034 policy! Our climate expert says so, and his credentials is that he's the go-to climate expert that Fox News turns to whenever the libs talk about climate change!"...
And the J.D. Vance nominated judge will say "not guilty!"...
A good start for actually holding people accountable in the US would be prosecuting the entire chain of command responsible for blowing up unarmed South American boats and then murdering the survivors. That one's concrete, proven to have happened, and illegal under multiple standards of law, so if we can't at least make that happen anything else is unlikely.
> it's a shame politicians can't be kept accountable tens of years from now.
Donald Trump is 79. He can only be held accountable in the afterlife, if there is one.
this doesn't really make any sense. in this scenario what's the hedge then?
If we just let the psychopaths win, it will be too late in 15 years, arguably it’s too late now.
I've been thinking for a while that the only fix democracy needs is accountability for everything the politicians do and say (in public).
If you think of any (societal) issue you care about, there's a good chance it would get solved with that tiny change
Man, it's almost as if trump wasn't elected before! I guess an election doesn't count as being held to account in public.
https://generalstrikeus.com/
>It would be great that if in 25 years it turns out global warming does indeed cause huge problems for humans, we could sue the politicians that took irresponsible risks with the environment.
And if it turns out to be a big nothingburger, can we sue the politicians to recover the billions in taxpayer dollars that were diverted to their cronies on projects to nowhere during the green gold rush?
Such a shame we were wrong and made the world a better place for nothing. Sounds awful.
Better safe than sorry. If the risk is significant, and the impact is big, it is sensible to have plan to address risks. You probably have many expenses you hope you never need, like all sorts of insurances. And even if it turns out climate changes was less impactful than forcasted, change sparks innovation and creates economic opportunity. E.g, these days electrucs cars are better than fossil fuel cars (my wife wont let me lease another fossil fuel car, she likes the way the electric one drives much better), and solar electricity is cheaper than fossil electricity.
The money is fake, the burning of fossil fuels & increase of greenhouse gasses is real regardless of what ideology you subscribe to.
There are a vast number of scientists in agreement with each other that it is not a nothingburger.
It takes nothing but stark intentional ignorance to make a statement like yours.
It absolutely boggles my mind at the suggestion that green energy is all profit seeking, as if the counterparties in big oil aren't also just as or more interested in maintaining status quo in the opposite direction. Yet I never see someone who expresses ideas like this recognize or acknowledge that.
Switching to renewables and mass transit can improve the quality of life for people who live in urban environments because it makes the air they breath cleaner.
This is a major reason why developing countries are leapfrogging the west on this sort of stuff. Massive S.E. Asian cities are experiencing tremendous health benefits from the green revolution.
It's mostly built atop problem shifting. For example, Seattle fought to send their compost and build wind farms in eastern Washington - where it was in someone else's backyard.
Similar to battery recycling - which might end up being "recycled" by some 8 year old kid in SE Asia with a sledgehammer.
At worst the same way that performing CPR on a man with a heart attack is problem shifting, or feeding the hungry only makes them hungry again in the future.
Wind turbines are not problems. They are opportunities. Notice that thr specious bullshit problems cited with wind turbines go away in rural areas once farmers are the ones making money on them.
> It's mostly built atop problem shifting. For example, Seattle fought to send their compost and build wind farms in eastern Washington - where it was in someone else's backyard.
This is a silly opinion to have. It's like complaining that reinforcing police presence in an area is problem shifting because you'll still have crime taking place somewhere else. It's an attempt to frame any action as a false dilemma that forces an all-or-nothing logic based on specious reasoning.
Ok. That's fine with me. If I'm wrong, then I take responsibility for that.
If it doesn't turn into a nothingburger *, can we get back the glaciers, the climate and the people who died to help your own cronies get some more billions?
* (that is, if there's not a global conspiracy of pedo-scientists set to harm poor oil tycoons)
While I agree that the results of these policies are devastating, why blame the politicians? They were voted for, and it's not like they were hiding their agendas.
Well they kind of are, in that the real perps are not them but folks like the Koch family who fund entire think tanks and counter programming to serve their narrow interests. They give money to the politicians in exchange for this viewpoint. It gets woven into so much of a bubbles fabric that it becomes self-reinforcing.
Again, if the voters bought it they are responsible for it and not the advocates. There is a reason that nobody named in the Epstein files is running a normalize pedophilia campaign. Because contrary to the rhetoric about money being the end all in politics it doesn't work for everything.
People as a whole are not experts in every possible area, nor is everyone universally smart. When politics get bought at an entire party level for decades, it’s hard to place blame on those who allow it. Don’t forget that culture wars is used as a wedge such that everything is combined. People don’t get to vote on their issues, they vote on buckets of viewpoints.
Fox News literally had a segment on the difference between pedophilia and some other philia whose name I forget.. it was basically saying hey they weren’t 5, they were 14-16! That’s different! Wonder why they’d feel the need to air that viewpoint…
So you’re saying that the politicians were just following orders?
Great to see “don’t look up” was just a documentary with some prescience.
These days I think a lot about idiocracy, from the same director I believe
I hope all these scientists move to China and Europe.
Climate scientists earn ~£30-50k in the UK
We can't afford scientist in Europe anymore, we have pensions to pay.
I suppose China does not need american scientist to work in China. They just need to make sure they can't work in the US. Which they are doing.
The only "funny" outcome is that they manage to fund a startup that develops tools to alleviate climate change, and explicitly reserve them to countries and states that believed in climate change in the first place.
But that would be mean. So, of course Florida can have it. It will just be slightly expensive for them.
https://commission.europa.eu/topics/research-and-innovation/...
Damn, this is the kind of thing that will backfire so much decades from now. Literally incalculable damages
The situation reminds me of that New Yorker comic: "Yes, the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders"
Governments should be responsible for preventing these types of externalities as one of their core functions. There is no incentive for markets, consumers, and companies to deal with this, yet the forecast costs of climate change and sea level rise are (and will be) massive. Many places have some weak patchwork framework of private insurance and FEMA style funds, but without an actual pricing and enforcement system there's no way out of the warming feedback loop.
I was extremely disappointed in the failure of my (Canada's) government to articulate what a carbon tax was or how it worked to voters, and that allowed the opposition from both sides to chip at it until now it's a politically toxic idea.
The game theory of international accords is increasingly falling apart and countries will try to undercut each other on carbon pricing.
https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995
My wife worked there when we first met. She told me she knew where there was a Cray-1 sitting at the bottom of a stair well. Obviously this raised my level of interest. We went up there on the weekend and took each other's photo sitting on it. From memory it was a very low serial number having been shipped to <some-TLA> first then subsequently moved to NCAR. I also peered through the glass at various exotica in the machine room: YMP, KSR, TM that sort of thing. Great first date.
[delayed]
News from a few weeks ago, multiple submissions around here.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/12/16/trum...
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/climate/national-center-f...
As I had already finished a reply to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46405900 when I found out it had died, here it is:
FACT: There's a lot that the United States can do to make the situation much worse or better.
FACT: However bad the current situation is, continuing the emissions will keep worsening it.
FACT: Digging in on dying technologies supports the prosperity of our less idiotic adversaries.
FACT: You will be downvoted to oblivion by people who are more aware of what the actual facts are.
“Digging in on dying technologies” is an interesting framing.
There is no appetite for oil alternatives that would stop this from meaning the deaths of hundreds of thousands or more people.
The fact is there is no effective way to power a stable grid with modern renewables. Increasing the energy mix sustainably is great. But if people truly want to divest from oil and coal there number one issue right now should be how to onboard nuclear energy effectively. This has been true for decades at this point, but purist policies on the right and the left have left it completely unrealized or actively dismantled it.
Solar and batteries get cheaper to build and maintain every year (almost to an absurd degree, seriously, look at the charts for the past 2 decades), while nuclear stays the same price.
That's not to say that nuclear power is bad to have, but there's an extremely obvious trajectory here of cheap battery-backed solar everywhere, with few regulatory hurdles and obvious incentives for people to have their own mini solar systems and batteries that take load off the larger grid.
Are coal and oil not dying technologies?
We can debate how much nuclear is needed, but renewables can do a lot, and just hoping that AI will bring nuclear fusion in 5 years is not a great strategy
This country is done. I’m ready for the New California Republic.
I wouldn't call for its funeral just yet, I think there's still fight left in it. But yes, now the inmates are running the asylum and it's... Sad.
They’ve given themselves 4 years to sack and loot the US.
They set the paradigm for this during the biden administration when they shut down all the covid reporting. now the paradigm is no info no problem.
Who is they? The state of Florida? And what the hell did Biden have to do with it?
biden shut down reporting, subsidies, and wound down almost everything. then trump came in and put in the worst villains from the brownstone institute and MAHA